For years, perpetual futures have been crypto's most traded instrument and almost none of that volume has touched U.S.-regulated infrastructure. Until now. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally approved KalshiEX to list BTCPERP, a no-expiry Bitcoin perpetual futures contract tied to spot BTC prices. On the same day, the agency's Market Participants Division issued a staff-level interpretation clearing Coinbase Financial Markets to route U.S. customers to certain derivatives on Deribit, its offshore affiliate. Two very different regulatory moves, made on the same morning, pointed at the same underlying problem: American traders have been effectively locked out of the largest segment of global crypto markets.

 

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig framed the Kalshi order as delivery on a specific commitment to onshore crypto perpetuals, describing the move as a path for one of the most liquid segments of the crypto asset markets to exist inside the U.S. regulatory framework. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong put a number to the problem his company says it is solving: until now, U.S. users have been locked out of roughly 80% of global crypto markets, which includes perpetual futures and options. Coinbase cited Deribit's more than $185 billion in July 2025 trading volume and approximately $60 billion in open interest at the time of acquisition to illustrate the scale of what domestic traders could not legally access through regulated channels.

 

What the CFTC Actually Approved

BTCPERP is a cash-settled contract referencing the U.S. dollar spot price of one Bitcoin, as tracked by the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real Time Index. It trades in units of one ten-thousandth of a BTC, runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and has no fixed expiry date.  Traditional futures converge toward their underlying asset at expiration because physical delivery or final cash settlement pulls the contract to spot. A perpetual has no such date, so the convergence mechanism operates continuously through periodic funding payments between long and short holders. If the contract trades above spot, longs pay shorts. If it trades below, shorts pay longs. The economic pressure keeps the perpetual price tracking Bitcoin in real time.

 

The CFTC's approval leans heavily on Bitcoin's specific market structure as its justification. The order notes Bitcoin's deep, active, and continuous spot trading across broadly distributed venues, with pricing observable around the clock. That depth is what makes the funding rate mechanism credible: arbitrageurs can act while the perpetual is live, since the underlying spot market never closes. The agency was explicit that this reasoning applies to Bitcoin and to similarly structured digital commodities with comparable market depth. Other assets will need to go through a separate review. Bitnomial had previously received certification for a product labeled a perpetual futures contract, but that contract carried a 25-year term limit and is considered a different structure. BTCPERP is the first true no-expiry perpetual to receive a Commission-level order.

 

Two Paths, Very Different Weight

The distinction between the Kalshi approval and the Coinbase staff letter matters more than it might look at first glance. Kalshi's BTCPERP is a Commission-issued order under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act and Regulation 40.3. That is formal product approval, with binding legal weight and a clear compliance framework. Coinbase's route is different in kind. The Market Participants Division issued an interpretation and a no-action position in response to Coinbase Financial Markets. Staff confirmed that certain Deribit digital commodity derivatives may be categorized as foreign futures under Regulation 30.1, and said it would not recommend enforcement action under specified conditions tied to how customer digital assets and stablecoins are handled as margin through Coinbase affiliates.

 

Staff letters are conditional by design. The CFTC was clear: these positions represent the Market Participants Division only, are not binding on the Commission, and can be modified, suspended, or terminated. The Coinbase path is useful for reaching scale quickly because it connects U.S. clients directly to Deribit's existing liquidity pool, which is among the largest in global crypto derivatives. But it carries a thinner precedential footprint. Coinbase said institutional onboarding to Deribit options has already begun, with perpetual futures access and broader retail availability described as coming later, without a hard timeline. Retail access is expected to carry additional eligibility criteria and risk disclosure requirements.

 

The Liquidity Question Nobody Can Answer Yet

Regulatory clearance is the easy part. Getting traders to use a U.S. regulated perpetual when Binance, Bybit, and OKX offer the same exposure with deeper order books and, in most cases, higher leverage, is the actual test. Offshore exchanges process billions of dollars in Bitcoin perp volume on a slow day. The CFTC has been working toward this moment for over a year, issuing a formal request for comment in April 2025 on perpetual derivatives, their benefits, risks, market integrity implications, and customer protection questions. The approvals are, in that sense, the policy answer to the RFI. The market answer comes when Kalshi's BTCPERP goes live and traders decide whether regulated access at U.S. leverage limits is a compelling enough trade-off.

 

The CFTC's case-by-case stance on future perpetual approvals means the template is now set, but the runway is not yet cleared. Ethereum perps, Solana perps, and other digital assets with sufficient spot market depth could follow, but each application needs to clear the same review process independently. Kalshi separately indicated it plans to launch perpetual contracts on more than a dozen currencies pending additional regulatory reviews. CME's parallel push toward 24/7 crypto futures and options trading adds another dimension to the picture: traditional derivatives infrastructure is adapting to match crypto's always-on market structure, while crypto-native exchanges now have a formal path to operate inside U.S. regulatory boundaries. Whether the liquidity follows is a question of product quality, margin efficiency, and distribution reach, and none of that gets answered in an approval order.

 

The next signals are practical: Kalshi's launch terms and funding rate performance, Coinbase's timeline for rolling out perpetual futures through CFM, how retail access gets structured, and whether formal rulemaking eventually hardens the current agency posture into something more durable. For now, U.S.-regulated Bitcoin perps exist. Whether they can actually compete is the harder question, and the market will answer it faster than any regulator. It usually does.

 

The SEC just greenlighted cash-settled Bitcoin iindex options on NASDAQ. 

 

On May 22, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission published a 34-page order clearing Nasdaq PHLX to list cash-settled bitcoin index options under the ticker QBTC. The order hands everyday brokerage account holders a direct path to trade bitcoin volatility right alongside their Apple and Nvidia shares, no separate accounts, no crypto wallets, no extra steps.

 

The approval came on an accelerated basis under SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, and it is conditional. Before a single QBTC contract can trade, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission still needs to grant exemptive relief. Bitcoin is legally classified as a commodity in the U.S., so the CFTC gets a say. No timeline has been announced for that step. But the direction things are moving is pretty hard to misread at this point.

 

What QBTC Actually Is

QBTC options are European-style and cash-settled. There is no physical delivery of bitcoin at expiration. When a contract expires, the exchange credits or debits the dollar difference between the strike price and the final index value. No bitcoin wallet. No custody headaches. The contracts track the Nasdaq Bitcoin Index, which represents one one-hundredth of the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, a benchmark pulling aggregated order book data from eight regulated venues roughly every 200 milliseconds.

 

Unlike options tied to individual spot bitcoin ETFs (say, BlackRock's IBIT), these contracts reference the broader bitcoin market directly. That gives institutional managers a cleaner hedge against general bitcoin price exposure without fund-specific tracking differences bleeding into their positions. It is a subtle but meaningful difference for anyone running a real book.

 

Size Is the Real Story Here

This is where retail traders should actually pay attention. Each QBTC contract delivers exposure equal to exactly one bitcoin, using a 1/100th index scaling factor with a standard $100 multiplier. CME's standard bitcoin options are sized at five bitcoin per contract. At current prices, one CME contract can represent several hundred thousand dollars in notional exposure. Fine for a large hedge fund, not so practical for smaller shops or individual investors trying to manage a position with any precision.

 

CME's bitcoin options also require a dedicated derivatives account, which is another layer of friction before anyone can even place a trade. QBTC options will sit on the same Nasdaq platform as the technology stocks most investors already own. Your existing brokerage account should work. That is a real accessibility improvement, not just a marketing claim.

 

For the record: the per-side position limit is set at 24,000 contracts, which the SEC noted works out to roughly 0.12% of bitcoin's outstanding supply. Minimum price increment is $0.01. The mechanics are deliberately designed to feel familiar to anyone who has ever traded index options.

 

The Regulatory Picture Is Messy, but Getting Better

The road to approval was not totally smooth. CME Group submitted a comment letter last October arguing these contracts fall under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. The SEC pushed back, leaning on Section 717 of the Dodd-Frank Act to argue that shared jurisdiction is permissible when the CFTC provides exemptive relief. That jurisdictional tension is still technically unresolved, which is exactly why CFTC sign-off remains the final hurdle.

 

The SEC approval itself came nine months after Nasdaq PHLX originally filed back in September 2025, following multiple rounds of public commentary and extension periods. Nine months is actually fast by historical standards for a novel derivative product. The original spot bitcoin ETF approvals took something like four years from first filing to clearance, under the Gensler administration's much more skeptical posture toward crypto.

 

People following this space closely see QBTC as part of a broader shift that started taking shape in early 2025. The Atkins-led SEC has dropped numerous enforcement actions against crypto firms and moved toward more permissive regulatory frameworks. Add in the ongoing CLARITY Act discussions in Congress, and it feels less like a string of isolated approvals and more like a deliberate effort to build out the full institutional crypto stack inside traditional market infrastructure.

 

What Happens Next

A realistic launch window is probably the second half of 2026, assuming CFTC exemptive relief comes through on a normal timeline. Once trading begins, any U.S. options broker supporting index options should be able to facilitate QBTC trades without any special setup required on the user end.

 

The longer-term picture is worth thinking about. Crypto options volume has grown sharply over the past two years, driven by institutional demand for hedging tools and yield strategies. With QBTC in the mix, investors would have access to spot bitcoin ETFs, ETF-specific options, CME futures, and now broad index-linked options, all sitting within traditional exchange infrastructure. The institutional crypto derivatives stack is starting to look, piece by piece, a lot like what already exists for gold and oil.

 

How quickly the CFTC moves on exemptive relief will say a lot about whether the two agencies are genuinely coordinated on crypto or just moving in parallel. The market is watching that closely. And given everything that has happened over the past 18 months, it would be surprising if this one got stuck for long.

 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed an amicus brief in the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit following a United States District Court decision involving Kalshi in Ohio.

 

 

Through this filing, the CFTC seeks to assert its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and to overturn the ban previously imposed by Chief Judge Sarah D. Morrison of the United States District Court for the Southern District of Ohio.

 

“The federal district court in Ohio took an improperly narrow view of the Commission’s jurisdiction, and we are asking the Court of Appeals to correct that error,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig. “As I’ve said repeatedly, the CFTC will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency’s longstanding authority over these markets.”

 

Kalshi’s Case Against Ohio

The March ban on Kalshi by an Ohio district court dates back to early 2025, when the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC) issued a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi, instructing it to stop offering its sports event contracts in the state, alleging that those contracts were illegal.

 

Following this order, Kalshi sued state regulators and other state officials, seeking a preliminary injunction to block enforcement of the cease-and-desist order. However, the case was dismissed when Judge Sarah D. Morrison ruled against Kalshi, allowing state regulators to enforce the ban and later impose a $5 million fine on Kalshi for continuing to offer sports event contracts in the state.

 

Kalshi has now appealed to the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, seeking to overturn the ban. In its amicus brief filing, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) not only argues for the removal of the ban but also seeks to protect prediction market companies from what it describes as an ongoing campaign of state encroachment.

 

As part of its protective efforts, the CFTC has engaged in legal disputes with several U.S. states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, over their regulatory stance and enforcement actions against prediction market companies.

 

Despite the challenging regulatory environment faced by prediction market companies, the sector has grown significantly. In 2025, annual trading volume across prediction market platforms rose to approximately $63.5 billion from $15.8 billion in 2024. The number of users across prediction market companies has also increased, with institutional investors showing greater interest and contributing more capital to these platforms.

 

 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been making the rounds. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig confirmed this month that his agency is in active talks with all major professional sports leagues in the United States, as regulators scramble to get ahead of potential insider trading problems on prediction markets.

 

"We're talking to all the sports leagues because it's critical that they've got the best information as to what's manipulable in their markets and where the insider trading risks are," Selig said on the Faro Radio podcast. The comments come after months of escalating alarm in Washington over the explosion of prediction market trading tied to sports, politics, and military events.

 

A Market That Grew Too Fast

The numbers tell the story. Monthly trading volume on prediction markets has jumped from around $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion by January 2026, according to blockchain research firm TRM Labs. Sports event contracts alone now make up nearly 90% of all bets placed on Kalshi over the past year, according to the Congressional Research Service. That kind of scale, combined with the potential for people with inside knowledge to profit on it, has made regulators nervous.

 

"The biggest issue that comes up is manipulation and insider trading in these markets," Selig told Front Office Sports. And the regulator isn't just talking. In March 2026, the CFTC and Major League Baseball entered into a first-of-its-kind memorandum of understanding, establishing a formal framework for confidential information-sharing between the federal agency and the league. It was a signal that more deals could be coming.

 

Leagues Are Moving, Too

The NHL, MLS, and MLB have all inked prediction market partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi over the past several months. The NBA is reportedly in active talks with both platforms. The NFL has been the notable holdout, citing integrity concerns, and Selig declined to confirm whether those conversations are ongoing. What is clear is that the agency sees league cooperation as essential. The CFTC has told prediction markets it expects them to share information with leagues about which categories of individuals should be restricted from trading, including players, coaches, referees, trainers, and data partners.

 

The platforms themselves moved to tighten their own rules in March. Kalshi introduced new technological guardrails to block athletes from trading on contracts tied to their own leagues, and politicians from betting on their own races. Polymarket updated its rulebook the same day to prohibit trading on any information that would "violate a preexisting duty or obligation of trust," even when that information was obtained secondhand.

 

The urgency is partly driven by what has already happened in other markets. In April 2026, the CFTC filed its first-ever insider trading complaint involving event contracts, charging an active-duty U.S. Army soldier with using classified intelligence about a military operation in Venezuela to trade Polymarket contracts, generating more than $400,000 in profit. The DOJ has since signaled it will pursue criminal prosecutions for insider trading on prediction markets as well. Jay Clayton, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in February that his office expects to bring fraud cases tied to prediction market trading.

 

Sports have precedent of their own. The NBA's lifetime ban of Jontay Porter and the federal charges hanging over former Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier both stem from sports betting misconduct. Prediction markets are a different product legally, but the underlying concern, that people with privileged access to information are using it to profit, is exactly the same.

 

Congress Is Watching

Capitol Hill is paying attention, too. A coalition of Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to the CFTC in late April urging the agency to issue a formal rule prohibiting certain types of event contracts and curbing insider trading. The letter, led by Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon, described the rapid growth of prediction markets as an "erosion of integrity" that demands regulatory action. Separate legislation has been introduced that would bar government officials from using prediction markets entirely and prohibit event contracts tied to elections, war, and sports.

 

The CFTC, for its part, published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in March seeking public comment on whether to amend regulations governing prediction market event contracts. Selig has framed the issue in stark terms, drawing comparisons to the offshore drift that plagued crypto markets before FTX. "I'm concerned we'll see the same with prediction markets if we keep pushing it offshore into the unregulated space," he said.

 

For now, the talks with sports leagues continue. Whether they translate into formal agreements on the scale of the MLB deal, and how quickly, may determine how effectively the CFTC can police the fastest-growing corner of the derivatives market before the next scandal breaks.

 

Gemini Olympus, LLC, an affiliate of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, has recently received a Derivatives Clearing Organization license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enabling it to act as the clearinghouse for Gemini’s regulated derivatives trading, including prediction markets.

 

“Today marks a major milestone in Gemini’s marketplace expansion. In addition to our crypto spot marketplace, Gemini now has a full-stack, end-to-end marketplace for predictions as well as futures, options, and more,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s president. He added that the DCO license is a major stepping stone toward Gemini achieving its goal of building a super app that allows users to fulfill all their existing and future financial needs in one place.

 

 

With this newly secured DCO license, together with the Designated Contract Market license that Gemini Titan, LLC, another Gemini entity, secured around December of last year, Gemini is now one step closer to obtaining the full suite of CFTC derivatives licenses.

 

Once it secures the Futures Commission Merchant license, the final component of the CFTC derivatives licensing framework, the company would be able to position itself as a fully regulated derivatives platform in the United States, offering U.S. customers a range of products, including crypto futures, options, and perpetual futures.

 

Gemini Joins Exchanges in Crypto Derivatives Push

With the Derivatives Clearing Organization license now secured and the Futures Commission Merchant license in sight, Gemini has joined a host of other crypto exchanges, including Kraken, Crypto.com, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, in the race to position themselves as all-in-one derivatives platforms.

 

To break into the derivatives market, Payward, the parent company of the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, acquired Bitnomial, a U.S.-based derivatives exchange, for $550 million last month. Like Kraken, Coinbase has also taken the acquisition route to enter the crypto derivatives market, acquiring Deribit Exchange for $2.9 billion and The Clearing Company for an undisclosed amount.

 

The race to provide complete crypto derivatives offerings is not unique to cryptocurrency exchanges, as prediction market companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are also making efforts to enter the crypto derivatives market.

 

Through Kinetic Markets LLC, one of its affiliates, Kalshi recently secured the Futures Commission Merchant license, along with the Designated Contract Market license it already holds, with efforts underway to secure the Derivatives Clearing Organization license, which is the final license required.

 

 

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market company, has partnered with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to help curb insider trading activities amid its recent move to raise $400 million from investors.

 

The partnership will see Chainalysis deploy several investigative tools, including the Chainalysis Data Solutions tool, a first-of-its-kind on-chain solution designed to monitor trading activity on prediction markets while mapping insider trading patterns and enforcing market integrity rules across the Polymarket platform.

 

 

The prediction market platform will also benefit from Chainalysis’s on-chain security capabilities, which are pivotal in preventing threats, as well as a dedicated team of Chainalysis professionals who will not only help deploy Chainalysis Data Solutions but also train the Polymarket team on how to proactively use the solution to maintain transparency on the platform.

 

The solution to be deployed is also dynamic, meaning Polymarket can continually refine its detection methods to identify and curb insider trading activities, thereby maintaining transparency and protecting the platform from emerging threats.

 

By partnering with and leveraging Chainalysis's institutional expertise, Polymarket is clearly signaling its stance against all types of fraud and market manipulation and that those who attempt to engage in any such activities will be promptly identified and prosecuted.

 

"Polymarket was built on chain because transparency matters, and our platform shows what markets can look like when trades are open, traceable, and accountable by design," said Shayne Coplan, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Polymarket.

 

"Every market deserves that standard. This partnership with Chainalysis pairs that transparency with the monitoring and enforcement infrastructure to back it up and helps us continue to build the most trusted source of truth in markets."

 

Insider Trading Concerns in Prediction Market Platforms 

Insider trading, which is the illegal practice of leveraging material non-public information (MNPI) or confidential information to gain an edge over other market participants, has long been a problem for prediction market platforms.

 

To curb insider trading, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a measure banning its members from trading on prediction markets. Most recently, a group of congressional Democrats led by Sen. Jeff Merkley has pressed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), urging the regulator to address the lack of integrity caused by insider trading activities on prediction market platforms.

 

Due to this mounting pressure, Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction market platforms have rolled out several restrictions to address these concerns, which is also the main factor behind the Polymarket Chainalysis partnership.

 

 

Bitnomial, the Chicago based cryptocurrency exchange, has launched the first Injective (INJ) futures contracts in the United States, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

 

Although access is currently limited to institutional clients, with retail traders expected to gain access in the future, the newly launched INJ futures contracts allow users to gain exposure to the Injective Protocol underlying INJ token without directly holding it.

 

 

The futures contracts settle in INJ with monthly expiries. This means that while the INJ futures contracts are tradable on the Bitnomial exchange, each contract has an expiry date. When this date is reached each month, the contract expires and settles.

 

The INJ futures contracts can also be margined in crypto or United States dollars, which means traders can choose to deposit either United States dollars or other supported cryptocurrencies as collateral when they open and maintain leveraged positions on the Bitnomial platform.

 

The launch of the Injective INJ futures contracts is one of several futures contract launches by Bitnomial this year, with the exchange having launched XRP futures contracts last month and Tezos and Aptos futures contracts earlier in the year.

 

What the Injective Protocol is

The Injective protocol is a high performance layer 1 blockchain built for decentralized finance DeFi and other advanced financial applications. The Injective chain was built to support complex blockchain infrastructures such as decentralized exchanges DEXs, derivatives trading, perpetual futures, spot markets, prediction markets, lending, and real world assets RWAs.

 

Since its launch, several blockchain protocols have been built on the Injective chain, including Helix, a decentralized exchange, DojoSwap, an automated market maker, and Astroport.

 

Kraken in Deal to Acquire Bitnomial

In its latest acquisition move, Payward, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, has agreed to acquire Bitnomial for 550 million dollars in a deal expected to close before the end of the quarter.

 

 

Through this acquisition, Kraken aims to establish a fully vertically integrated United States crypto derivatives platform under full Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation. The acquisition is intended to help Kraken accelerate the development of its derivatives business in the United States.

 

Bitnomial’s strong regulatory framework and compliance structure are among the factors influencing the deal. The company operates a Designated Contract Market, a Derivatives Clearing Organization, and a Futures Commission Merchant that supports its brokerage services.

 

Since Bitnomial already has these infrastructures in place, its acquisition is expected to be pivotal for Kraken in advancing its derivatives exchange objectives.

 

 

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world’s largest financial derivatives marketplace, has announced plans to launch Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI) futures contracts on May 4, pending regulatory review by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

 

The launch of these contracts, the company says, will allow market participants and traders the option to choose between micro-sized and larger-sized futures contracts, including AVAX futures sized at 5,000 AVAX and micro AVAX futures sized at 500 AVAX, as well as SUI futures contracts sized at 50,000 SUI and micro SUI futures contracts sized at 5,000 SUI.

 

According to Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products, the launch of this new set of futures contracts is aimed at providing clients and market participants with greater flexibility and more market options, as well as improved capital efficiency across the deeply liquid CME derivatives market.

 

"We continue to see strong volumes as market participants turn to our markets to manage risk and pursue opportunities, with March average daily volume up 19 percent year over year and nearly $8 billion in average notional value traded daily,” Vicioso said.

 

The nearly $8 billion in average notional value traded is not insignificant, as CME is one of the most liquid derivatives exchanges. According to a February trading report, the CME derivatives trading platform recorded an all-time daily trading peak of 29.6 million futures contracts in January of this year, a 15 percent year over year increase compared with January of the previous year.

 

The launch of the Avalanche and Sui contracts comes shortly after CME Group launched Cardano (ADA) futures, Chainlink (LINK) futures, and Stellar (XLM) futures contracts on February 9 of this year, as part of the firm’s ongoing strategy of providing trusted, regulated crypto products to all kinds of market participants.

 

Crypto Derivatives Market Continues to Boom

The crypto derivatives trading market, primarily the futures and options market, has continued to boom. In the first quarter of this year, crypto derivatives trading accounted for almost 90 percent of the total $20.57 trillion traded in that period, reaching $18.63 trillion, while spot trading accounted for $1.94 trillion.

 

There has also been an increase in the number of large institutions in recent times, including traditional finance institutions that have moved to tap into this vast section of the crypto market.

 

In October 2025, the global investment bank Goldman Sachs, in collaboration with DBS Bank, launched the first-ever over-the-counter interbank cryptocurrency options trade. In December last year, JPMorgan Chase, America’s largest bank, also began exploring the launch of crypto spot and derivatives trading services for its institutional clients.

 

 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) have filed parallel federal lawsuits against the states of Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona, as well as their gaming regulators, over the federal government’s right to regulate prediction markets.

 

The filings, which were made on Thursday, aim to prevent these states from restricting prediction market companies and enforcing state-level rules on them. The CFTC claims that it possesses exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets and says it will defend participants from what it describes as overzealous state regulators.

 

With this move, the CFTC seeks to halt strict regulatory actions taken by these states’ authorities, including several cease-and-desist letters issued to prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

 

What These States Did

Earlier this year, the Arizona Attorney General filed criminal charges against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC, accusing them of operating an illegal gambling business without a state license and violating state election wagering laws.

 

In December 2025, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease-and-desist orders to multiple prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood, accusing them of offering illegal sports event contracts and operating unlicensed online gambling operations within the state.

 

In April 2025, the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, asserting that the sports event contracts offered by these platforms constituted illegal wagering under Illinois gambling law.

 

In the court filing against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and the Illinois Gaming Board, the U.S. commodities regulator argues that event contracts traded on approved exchanges qualify as “swaps” under federal law, not gambling. The regulator also contends that Congress granted it exclusive jurisdiction and that Illinois’s insistence on licensing requirements amounts to an attempt to block federally regulated exchanges from operating.

 

Image credit: courtlistener

 

CFTC Acting Chair Michael Selig reiterated in a post on X that the CFTC has exclusive authority to regulate prediction market activity in the United States, and confirmed that the lawsuit was jointly filed by his agency and the U.S. Department of Justice.

 

 

Crackdown on Prediction Market Intensifies

Prediction market companies have faced intense crackdowns and regulatory restrictions in the U.S. in recent times. There are currently over 20 nationwide lawsuits filed against prediction market companies by regulators from several states, including New York, Washington, Nevada, and Massachusetts.

 

Outside the U.S., there have also been several strict regulatory actions by authorities in multiple countries, with many regulators accusing prediction market companies, especially Polymarket and Kalshi, of operating unregistered gambling activities and offering illegal sports event contracts in their jurisdictions.

 

 

Peken Global Limited, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin, has agreed to pay $500,000 in a settlement in a case brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which alleged that the company operated an unregistered trading platform for U.S. users.

 

In a Monday press release, the CFTC announced that the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York had entered a consent order with Peken Global Limited to resolve the case with the U.S. commodities regulator. As part of the agreement, Peken is permanently restrained from future violations.

 

According to the CFTC, the settlement was reached as a result of Peken’s cooperation during the investigation and related proceedings. The agency also stated that neither it nor the court would be seeking or imposing disgorgement of profits from Peken.

 

The CFTC Case With Kucoin

The CFTC case involving crypto exchange KuCoin officially began on March 26, 2024, when the U.S. commodity regulator filed a civil lawsuit against KuCoin and its related entities, including Peken Global Limited, Mek Global Limited, PhoenixFin PTE Ltd., and Flashdot Limited.

 

The CFTC accused KuCoin and its affiliates of violating several U.S. financial laws, including operating an unregistered trading platform, offering high-risk and unregistered crypto products, failing to properly verify users, and violating U.S. anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) requirements.

 

KuCoin agreed to settle the charges, paying penalties totaling nearly $300 million and committing to exit the U.S. market for at least three years.

 

This is not the first time KuCoin has faced regulatory challenges in the United States. In 2023, the New York Attorney General accused the exchange of operating in the state without proper registration, resulting in a $22 million settlement and an order to cease operations in New York.

 

KuCoin has also faced regulatory actions outside the U.S. 

 

In 2022, the Ontario Securities Commission in Canada identified it as an unregistered crypto exchange, resulting in a $2 million penalty. In 2025, Canada’s Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre (FINTRAC) imposed a $19.5 million fine on the exchange for allegedly violating anti-money laundering laws. More recently, Austria’s Financial Market Authority (FMA) restricted the exchange from registering new users until it complied with local AML regulations.

 

 

 

Something shifted in Washington on Friday, and the people who have been watching the CLARITY Act back and forth for months could feel it. Two key lawmakers, Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, reached an agreement in principle on one of the most stubbornly contested provisions in the bill: stablecoin yield. It is the kind of deal that, when the details finally shake out, may well be remembered as the moment the United States stopped kicking the crypto regulatory can down the road.

 

The news broke late Friday and was first reported by Politico. Senator Alsobrooks confirmed it plainly. "Sen. Tillis and I do have an agreement in principle," she said. "We've come a long way. And I think what it will do is to allow us to protect innovation, but also gives us the opportunity to prevent widespread deposit flight." The White House's crypto executive director, Patrick Witt, called it a "major milestone" and added that more work remains, but that progress toward passing the CLARITY Act was now real and tangible.

 

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who chairs the Senate Banking Committee's crypto subcommittee and has been one of the most tireless advocates for this legislation, marked the occasion in her own way. She posted a photo on X of a "yield" sign. No caption needed.

 

 

The Stablecoin Yield Standoff, Explained

For months, the stablecoin yield question was the immovable object blocking the CLARITY Act from getting its Senate Banking Committee hearing. 

 

The GENIUS Act, signed into law by President Trump in July 2025, prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders. The intent was to prevent stablecoins from functioning as de facto bank deposit accounts, which would put them in direct competition with traditional savings products and, as the American Bankers Association argued loudly, threaten deposit flows into community banks. The concern: if Coinbase or another platform could offer users 4% on their dollar-pegged tokens simply for holding them, why would anyone keep money in a checking account?

 

The problem is that the GENIUS Act only covered issuers. It left a gap for third-party platforms that might offer rewards to customers who hold stablecoins on their systems. The ABA saw this as a loophole and spent months in Washington lobbying to close it. Crypto companies, for their part, said those rewards programs were fundamentally different from deposit interest and should be allowed.

 

Section 404 of the Senate Banking Committee's draft tried to thread this needle. It prohibits digital asset service providers from paying interest or yield "solely in connection with the holding of a payment stablecoin," while explicitly allowing "activity-based" rewards tied to transactions, payments, platform use, loyalty programs, liquidity provision, and other behaviors. The distinction is real: a reward for moving money through a system is not the same thing as interest paid for parking money in one.

 

Senator Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican on the Banking Committee, captured the nuance at an ABA summit earlier this month: rewards cannot be simply about how much money sits in an account, but they might reasonably be tied to how active that account is. "We're trying to reflect that in the discussions," he said.

 

Lummis had suggested the final compromise would disallow anything that "sounds like banking product terminology" and bar rewards tied to the size of a user's balance. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, whose withdrawal of support in January helped torpedo a scheduled markup hearing, has been described by Lummis as "really pretty good about being willing to give on this issue."

 

 

From 99% to Done

The past week has been a rapid acceleration. As recently as Thursday, sources familiar with the situation described the stablecoin yield issue as being on the verge of resolution. A closed Senate Republican meeting on Wednesday, attended by White House crypto council director Patrick Witt, produced what Lummis told reporters afterward were significant breakthroughs, with "major light bulbs" switched on among the participants.

 

FinTech Weekly, which has closely tracked the legislative calendar, reported that stablecoin yield negotiations were "99% of the way to resolution" coming out of that meeting. The digital asset provisions of the bill more broadly were described as being in a "good place." The remaining friction, sources said, was not technical but political, specifically around whether community bank deregulation provisions might be attached to the CLARITY Act as part of a broader legislative trade.

 

Then came Friday's agreement. "We've come a long way," Alsobrooks told Politico, with a formality that understated just how much ground has been covered since January, when the scheduled markup hearing collapsed under the weight of over 100 proposed amendments and an industry revolt over the yield language.

 

 

What Comes Next and Why the Timeline Matters

An agreement on yield does not mean the CLARITY Act is done. Several other issues need resolution, decentralized finance remains a live debate, and the bill still needs to clear the Senate Banking Committee before it can go to a full Senate vote. After that, it must be reconciled with the version that passed the Senate Agriculture Committee in January. And before the President can sign it, that combined Senate text has to be reconciled with the House-passed version from July 2025. 

 

But the clock is ticking here. Senate Majority Leader John Thune controls the floor calendar, and it is crowded. Unrelated fights, including the Republican voter-ID bill and ongoing debate over the situation in Iran, are competing for limited floor time. Haun Ventures CEO Katie Haun, in a CNBC interview Friday, put it directly: "The big question on the Clarity Act is, is Congress going to get a bill to the floor on time to vote?"

 

Lummis has said she expects a Banking Committee hearing in the latter half of April, after the Easter recess. Advocates have been hoping for a May resolution. Prediction markets are currently pricing the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed in 2026 at around 72%, according to FinTech Weekly. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described passage as a spring 2026 target. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has put the odds at 80 to 90%.

 

JPMorgan analysts have described CLARITY Act passage by midyear as a positive catalyst for digital assets, pointing to regulatory clarity, institutional scaling, and tokenization growth as the key drivers. The crypto industry committed nearly $150 million to the Fairshake political action committee in the current cycle and announced a $193 million war chest around the Agriculture Committee markup in January. The companies behind that spending are waiting.

 

 

What This All Means

The stakes of the CLARITY Act extend well beyond Senate procedure. Markets are waiting. Institutions that have been slowly building out crypto infrastructure, custody solutions, tokenized asset offerings, trading desks, need to know what the rules are before they can fully commit capital and resources. The SEC's interpretation helps, but as Atkins himself acknowledged, it is not a substitute for law.

 

The CLARITY Act, if signed, would give the CFTC clear jurisdiction over most digital asset spot markets, create a path to register exchanges and brokers, establish consumer protections with real enforcement teeth, and provide the kind of statutory framework that companies can build businesses around. It would, in the language of its Senate Banking Committee sponsors, establish the United States as the crypto capital of the world, not just by rhetoric but by law.

 

If the bill fails this year, the status quo continues. Crypto companies operate under regulatory uncertainty. The SEC retains broad discretion to treat digital assets as securities. Institutional adoption continues but without a clear statutory framework. And the crypto lobby, which has made clear it will treat failure as a political liability, turns its $193 million war chest into something that looks a lot more like electoral pressure.

 

Friday's agreement does not guarantee passage. It does something important though. It removes the single biggest substantive obstacle to moving forward. The stablecoin yield question, which derailed a January markup hearing and has consumed months of negotiations, now has a resolution in principle. The path ahead still has obstacles, but for the first time in a while, it looks like an actual path.

 

Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks just handed the crypto industry something it has been asking for since the last bull market: a credible signal that Washington is finally going to do its job. The deal is in principle, the details are not yet public, and there is still legislative work ahead. But after years of false starts, shelved bills, collapsed markup hearings, and agency standoffs, this is the moment the trajectory changed.

 

 

Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) got a real boost from Wall Street on Thursday evening. Shares jumped roughly 7% in after-hours trading, climbing to $6.45 after the company reported its fourth-quarter results and laid out a vision for where it is headed next. For a stock that has been taking a real beating the last few months, this feels like it could be a turning point, or at least the beginning of one.

 

The company went public on the Nasdaq in September 2025, raising around $425 million and generating a lot of excitement. The stock has since pulled back significantly, but Thursday's earnings report finally gave investors something that they can feel good about again.

 

 

Gemini Is Moving Beyond Being Just A Crypto Exchange

The headline from the results was not actually about trading at all. For the first time ever, revenue from Gemini's services and interest-based products surpassed what it made from trading fees. Services revenue rose 33% compared to the prior quarter, hitting $26.5 million. That might sound like dry accounting detail, but it matters a lot. It means Gemini is no longer entirely dependent on whether people are actively buying and selling crypto on any given day. That is a big deal for a business trying to grow steadily rather than just riding the waves of a notoriously volatile market.

 

A lot of that services growth came from Gemini's credit card, which functions like a rewards card but pays cashback in cryptocurrency instead of airline miles or cash. That product processed over $1.2 billion in transactions throughout 2025. Total revenue for the full year came in at $179.6 million, up 26% from the year before, and services revenue more than doubled over the same period. The company is building something that looks less like a pure-play crypto exchange and more like a broader financial platform, one that works even when the crypto market is quiet.

 

Beyond the credit card, the move that has really captured investors' imaginations is Gemini's push into prediction markets.

 

Gemini launched its prediction markets product, called Gemini Predictions, in December 2025 after its affiliate Gemini Titan received official approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This approval was five years in the making; the company first applied for the license back in March 2020. Receiving it placed Gemini in a very small club of fully regulated prediction market operators in the United States.

 

The early traction is genuinely encouraging. More than 15,000 users have already traded contracts covering categories from crypto prices to politics to sports. In the shareholder letter published Thursday, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss made a bold pitch for why they believe this could be one of the most significant financial products in a generation. They argue that prediction markets forecast the future more accurately and more quickly than traditional experts, pollsters, or media organizations, and that Gemini is positioned at the center of that shift. It is an ambitious claim, but the regulatory foundation they have built gives them a real head start over most competitors.

 

When the CFTC approval was announced back in December, GEMI shares surged nearly 32% in a single session. The market clearly sees the prediction markets business as a meaningful growth engine, and Thursday's results confirmed that the product is gaining real users not just the new, shiny thing with a fancy launch.

 

 

Focusing On What Works

One of the things investors responded well to on Thursday was evidence that management is making tough decisions to streamline the business. In February, Gemini announced it would be cutting roughly 25% of its global workforce and closing its exchange operations in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia. It is closing those regional operations and partnering with eToro, another regulated trading platform, to help affected customers transfer their assets.

 

The Winklevoss brothers described the move plainly: those international markets were hard to compete in, and trying to win them was stretching the company too thin. By pulling back to focus on the U.S., where Gemini has the strongest regulatory footing and the largest user base, management believes it can move faster and reach profitability sooner. The restructuring costs around $11 million, most of it in the first quarter of 2026, but the expected savings over time are significantly larger. 

 

The company's full-year 2025 revenue of $179.6 million came in at the top end of its own preliminary estimates, a small but positive sign that the business is not deteriorating further. Operating expenses were higher than many investors would have liked, but the direction of travel looks more controlled heading into 2026 with the restructuring largely complete.

 

 

What's Next?

Gemini is not without its challenges. The company is dealing with several class action lawsuits filed by shareholders who believe the IPO documents did not fully reflect the scale of the restructuring that was coming. A management conference call is scheduled for Friday morning, and investors will want straight answers on the legal strategy, a timeline for replacing several senior executives who departed in February, and more detail on how fast the prediction markets business is actually growing.

 

Still, the picture Thursday evening was meaningfully better than it has been for most of the past six months. The company is generating real growth in non-trading revenue, it has a licensed and operational prediction markets platform at a time when that category is attracting serious investor and user interest, and management is finally showing a willingness to make hard cuts rather than try to compete on every front at once.

 

Prediction markets as a category have grown explosively over the past couple of years. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have demonstrated real user demand, and regulators under the current administration have signaled a permissive approach to the space. Gemini's CFTC license gives it a compliance advantage that most rivals cannot replicate quickly, and its existing crypto user base is a ready-made pool of customers who already understand event-based trading.

 

Whether Gemini can fully execute on the vision Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss have laid out is still an open question. But for the first time in a while, Thursday's report gave investors something to point to beyond the headline loss number, and the after-hours market seemed to appreciate that. The stock sits more than 75% below its IPO price, so there is a lot of ground to recover. A rerating like that does not happen overnight. What Thursday showed, at least, is that the foundation for one might finally be taking shape.