When Michael Selig stepped into the role of CFTC chair late last year, the crypto industry was already expecting a change in tone. This week, it got confirmation.

 

On January 20, Selig announced the launch of the CFTC’s new “Future-Proof” initiative, a program designed to rethink how U.S. markets regulate crypto, digital assets, and other fast-moving financial technologies. The message was clear. The old approach is no longer enough.

 

Rather than relying on enforcement actions and retroactive interpretations of decades-old rules, the CFTC wants to build regulatory frameworks that actually reflect how these markets function today.

 

For an industry that has spent years navigating uncertainty, that alone is a notable shift.

 

A Chair With Deep Crypto Roots

Selig is not new to crypto regulation. Before taking the top job at the CFTC, he worked closely with digital asset policy at the SEC and spent time in private practice advising both traditional financial firms and crypto companies. He also previously clerked at the CFTC, giving him an unusually well-rounded view of how regulators and markets interact.

 

That background shows up in his public comments. Since taking office, Selig has repeatedly emphasized predictability, clarity, and rules that market participants can actually follow without guessing how an agency might interpret them years later.

 

The Future-Proof initiative is the clearest expression of that philosophy so far.

 

What “Future-Proof” Really Means

At its core, Future-Proof is about moving away from improvisation. The CFTC wants to stop forcing novel digital products into regulatory boxes built for traditional derivatives and commodities.

 

Instead, the agency plans to pursue purpose-built rules through formal notice-and-comment processes. That means more upfront guidance and fewer surprises delivered through enforcement actions.

 

Selig has described the goal as applying the minimum effective level of regulation. Enough oversight to protect markets and participants, but not so much that innovation is choked off before it has a chance to mature.

 

For crypto firms, that approach could offer something they have long asked for but rarely received, which is regulatory certainty.

 

Why the Industry Is Paying Attention

The timing matters. Crypto markets are more institutional than they were even a few years ago. Large asset managers, trading firms, and infrastructure providers want clearer rules before committing serious capital. Uncertainty around jurisdiction and compliance has been one of the biggest obstacles.

 

If the CFTC follows through, Future-Proof could help define how derivatives, spot markets, and emerging products like prediction markets are treated under U.S. law. That would make it easier for firms to build, invest, and operate without constantly second-guessing regulators.

 

At the same time, clarity cuts both ways. More defined rules could also raise the bar for compliance, especially for smaller startups and decentralized platforms that have operated in legal gray zones.

 

 

Tennessee Attempts to Block Prediction Markets

 

 

A Broader Political Shift

Selig’s initiative does not exist in isolation. It comes as lawmakers in Washington continue debating how to split crypto oversight between the CFTC and the SEC. Several proposed bills aim to draw clearer lines around digital commodities and spot market regulation, potentially expanding the CFTC’s role.

 

Future-Proof appears designed to fit neatly into that broader push. If Congress hands the agency more authority, the CFTC wants to be ready with frameworks that can scale.

 

Still, challenges remain. The commission currently lacks a full slate of confirmed commissioners, raising questions about how durable these policy shifts will be. Coordination with the SEC is another open issue, especially where token classifications blur the line between securities and commodities.

 

What Does The Future Hold?

For now, Future-Proof is more direction than destination. The real test will be how quickly the CFTC turns principles into actual rules, and whether those rules survive political change and legal scrutiny.

 

But the tone alone represents a meaningful break from the past. After years of regulation by enforcement and ambiguity, the agency is signaling that crypto markets are not a temporary problem to be contained, but a permanent part of the financial system that deserves thoughtful governance.

 

Whether that vision becomes reality will shape the next phase of U.S. crypto regulation, and potentially determine whether innovation stays onshore or continues looking elsewhere.

 

 

 

Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to Halt Sports Prediction Contracts

 

Tennessee regulators have ordered Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to immediately stop offering sports-related prediction contracts to residents of the state, escalating a growing conflict between state gambling authorities and federally regulated prediction markets.

The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist orders on January 9, demanding that the three platforms halt all sports event contracts, void any open positions tied to Tennessee users, and refund customer funds by the end of the month.

State officials argue the products function as unlicensed sports betting under Tennessee law, regardless of how the companies describe them.

The move places Tennessee alongside a growing list of states pushing back against prediction markets that allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of sporting events, elections, or real-world events. While the platforms frame these products as financial instruments, state regulators increasingly see them as gambling by another name.

 

What Tennessee Is Demanding

According to the orders, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com must immediately cease offering sports contracts to Tennessee residents. Any existing sports-related contracts must be canceled, and all funds deposited by users in the state must be returned by January 31.

Failure to comply could expose the companies to civil penalties, injunctions, and possible criminal enforcement under Tennessee’s sports gaming laws.

The council’s position is straightforward. If money is being risked on the outcome of a sporting event, the state considers it sports wagering, which requires a license, tax payments, and adherence to consumer protection rules.

 

The Regulatory Fault Line

At the heart of the dispute is a long-running jurisdictional battle between state gambling regulators and the federal framework governing derivatives and commodities trading.

Kalshi and Polymarket operate under federal oversight tied to commodities regulation, and Crypto.com has positioned its event contracts as a similar financial product. The companies argue that their platforms fall outside traditional sports betting laws and should be regulated at the federal level.

Tennessee, like several other states, rejects that argument. State officials maintain that federal oversight does not override state authority when it comes to gambling conducted within state borders.

This disagreement has become one of the most contentious regulatory issues facing crypto-adjacent markets in the U.S.

 

A Pattern Across the States

Tennessee’s action is not an isolated case. Over the past year, multiple states have issued warnings or cease-and-desist orders targeting prediction markets tied to sports outcomes. Recently, Coinbase filed suit against Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois. Those states argue that Coinbase's prediction markets amount to illegal gambling and are attempting to ban them there.

Gaming regulators in states such as Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, and Illinois have raised similar concerns, arguing that prediction markets undermine state-regulated sports betting ecosystems while avoiding licensing requirements and taxes.

In some cases, platforms have pulled back voluntarily. In others, companies have opted to fight.

Kalshi has already challenged similar enforcement actions in court, arguing that state gambling laws are being improperly applied to federally regulated markets. The outcome of those cases could shape the future of prediction markets nationwide.

 

Why States Are Pushing Back Now

State regulators say the issue is not just about definitions, but about consumer protection and regulatory consistency.

Licensed sportsbooks are required to meet strict standards related to age verification, responsible gambling tools, fund segregation, and auditing. States argue that prediction markets offering sports contracts operate outside those guardrails while competing for the same customers.

There is also growing concern that prediction markets blur the line between financial trading and gambling in ways existing laws were never designed to address.

For regulators, allowing these products to operate unchecked could weaken the authority of state gaming frameworks that were carefully built following the legalization of sports betting.

 

What Happens Next

The Tennessee order adds new pressure on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com at a time when prediction markets are expanding rapidly and attracting increased attention from both traders and policymakers.

The companies could comply and exit the state, challenge the order in court, or push for clearer federal guidance that limits states’ ability to intervene.

Until that happens, the industry remains stuck in a regulatory gray zone, where legality depends less on federal approval and more on how individual states choose to interpret decades-old gambling laws.

 

For crypto-linked prediction markets, Tennessee’s action is another reminder that regulatory risk in the U.S. remains fragmented, unpredictable, and increasingly aggressive.

Coinbase has sued Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois today, but it does not look like a typical regulatory skirmish. On the surface, it was about a few cease-and-desist orders targeting prediction market contracts. In practice, it put a much bigger question on the table. What exactly are prediction markets supposed to be?

Are they casinos in disguise, digital poker rooms with better UX, or a new kind of financial market that belongs under federal oversight?

The answer matters, because the wrong classification could freeze a fast-growing corner of finance in legal limbo.

 

Why Coinbase Is Taking States to Court

The states argue that Coinbase’s prediction markets amount to illegal gambling. Users put money down on outcomes. Some win, some lose. No state gambling license, no approval.

Coinbase sees it very differently. These contracts, the company argues, are event-based derivatives. They look like futures, trade like futures, and are already subject to federal commodities law. The Chief Legal Officer for Coinbase, Paul Grewal, stated in an X post on Friday that the company filed the lawsuits to "confirm what is clear" and that prediction market should fall under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

If states are allowed to regulate these markets anyway, the logic goes, national liquidity disappears. A market that works in one state but not another stops being a market at all. But, there are comparisons to existing gambling laws and we broke those down for you.

 

The Casino Comparison Only Goes So Far

State regulators tend to reach for the casino analogy first, and it is easy to see why. There is money at risk. Outcomes are uncertain. The optics are not subtle.

But structurally, prediction markets do not behave like casinos. Casinos set the odds. The house always wins over time. The product is entertainment.

Prediction markets do not work that way. Prices are set by participants. New information moves markets. There is no built-in house edge. The value comes from aggregating beliefs into a number that says something useful about the future.

Calling that gambling because it involves money is a shortcut, and not a very precise one.

 

Poker Explains the Skill Argument, and Its Limits

Poker is the comparison that usually comes next. Courts have spent years debating whether poker is mostly luck or mostly skill. Many have concluded that skill dominates over time, even if chance plays a role in the short run.

Yet poker is still regulated as gambling in most places. Not because it lacks skill, but because the law never quite figured out where else to put it.

That history matters. It shows how activities that clearly reward information and decision-making can still end up trapped in gaming frameworks that were built for something else entirely.

Prediction markets risk repeating that mistake. Like poker, they reward skill. Unlike poker, they are not games. They are continuous markets with prices, liquidity, and arbitrage. Treating them like a card room because money changes hands misses the point.

 

Why Prediction Markets Look Like Futures Markets

If you strip away the cultural baggage, prediction markets start to look familiar. They are standardized contracts tied to future outcomes. Prices reflect probability. Traders respond to data.

That is the same basic logic behind futures contracts tied to interest rates, inflation, or commodities. Those markets involve speculation, risk, and uncertainty too. They are regulated, but they are not treated as gambling.

This is where Coinbase’s argument lands. Congress already created a regulator for markets like this. The CFTC exists to oversee contracts that trade future outcomes, including event-based ones. The fact that an outcome is an election or a policy decision does not change the structure of the market.

 

What Changes If Coinbase Wins

If Coinbase wins, the impact goes well beyond these three states.

First, jurisdiction becomes clearer. States would no longer be able to regulate federally governed prediction markets simply by labeling them gambling. That alone would remove one of the biggest sources of uncertainty hanging over the industry.

Second, the casino argument loses legal weight. Courts would be acknowledging that uncertainty plus money does not automatically equal gambling, especially when prices are discovered through open trading rather than set by an operator.

Third, prediction markets would finally escape the poker problem. They would not sit in a gray zone where skill is recognized but regulation never quite fits. Instead, they would fall under a framework designed for markets, not games.

With that clarity, these markets could scale. Liquidity would deepen. Institutional participants could step in. Contracts tied to economic data, climate outcomes, and corporate milestones could expand without the constant risk of state-level shutdowns.

Over time, prediction markets could start to look less like a regulatory headache and more like infrastructure. Another tool, alongside surveys and models, for figuring out what the world might do next.

 

A Bigger Signal About Regulation

This case is not really about Coinbase. It is about whether U.S. regulation can adapt when finance starts to blur into something new, a question that has stifled digital asset growth for years.

Casinos deal in chance. Poker deals in skill inside a gaming framework. Futures markets deal in information. Prediction markets belong in the third category, even if they make people uncomfortable.

If courts agree, it would send a signal that regulation can still be about function rather than analogy. That is not a radical idea. It is how most financial markets came to exist in the first place. Prediction markets are here to stay. We've seen huge partnerships with major media news outlets and exchanges. The regulatory details need to be clearly defined for this emerging industry.

 

And if that happens, prediction markets may finally stop being debated as gambling, and start being treated as what they have been trying to become all along. Markets that trade in probabilities, under rules built for markets, not casinos.

 

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Crypto CEOs Join CFTC’s Innovation Council as Market Structure Overhaul Picks Up Speed

Caroline Pham is heading into her final stretch as acting chair of the CFTC, but she is not easing her way out. Instead, she has pulled together a new CEO Innovation Council, bringing in a mix of crypto founders and leaders from major financial institutions. The timing feels intentional. Markets are shifting fast, the technology is shifting even faster, and she clearly wanted this group in place before she hands off the job.

The council itself is an unusual gathering. On one side are Tyler Winklevoss from Gemini, Arjun Sethi from Kraken and Shayne Coplan from Polymarket. On the other, executives from CME Group, Nasdaq, ICE and Cboe. It is not often you see these people sitting on the same advisory panel, let alone one created this quickly. According to the commission, the entire list came together in about two weeks, which says a lot about how much urgency Pham applied.

She thanked the group for agreeing to join so quickly, noting that the commission needs their experience as it tries to prepare for what comes next. The council will focus on the areas where the rulebook is changing as fast as the products themselves. Tokenization. Prediction markets. Perpetual contracts. Crypto collateral. Around the clock trading. Blockchain market plumbing. Basically all the things that traditional derivatives systems were never built to handle.

 

Here is the full list of names:

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket
Craig Donohue, Cboe
Terry Duffy, CME Group
Tom Farley, Bullish
Adena Friedman, Nasdaq
Luke Hoersten, Bitnomial
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi
Kris Marszalek, Crypto.com
David Schwimmer, LSEG
Arjun Sethi, Kraken
Jeff Sprecher, Intercontinental Exchange
Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini

 

All of this is happening as the agency prepares for new leadership. President Trump’s nominee, Mike Selig, is expected to be confirmed soon. When he steps in, he will inherit an agency already deep into crypto policy work that accelerated under Pham. Just this week, the CFTC launched a pilot for using crypto collateral inside derivatives markets. A few days before that, Bitnomial began offering leverage spot crypto trading with her support.

Pham has only been in the acting role for a short time, but she treated crypto as a top priority, pushing several initiatives that line up with the administration’s goal of positioning the United States as a leading hub for digital assets. Over at the SEC, Chairman Paul Atkins has been doing something similar through Project Crypto, which has been absorbing much of the agency’s energy.

 

What comes next will land in Selig’s lap. But with this council now in place, he will walk into a job where the industry and the regulators are already in the middle of a much bigger conversation about what the future of market structure should look like.

Polymarket Secures CFTC Approval, Marking a Landmark Return to the U.S. Regulated Market

Polymarket, one of the most well-known crypto prediction platforms, has officially secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a fully regulated exchange in the United States. This milestone represents the end of a long regulatory saga and marks the beginning of a new era for event-based markets in the American financial system.

Once viewed primarily as an offshore curiosity on the fringes of crypto, Polymarket is now entering the most regulated derivatives market in the world with a structure that resembles a traditional exchange. The approval signals a wider shift in how prediction markets are treated, not as gray-area gambling products but as legitimate financial instruments with real informational and economic value.

 

A Long Road Back: From Enforcement Actions to Full Approval

Polymarket’s path to reentry took several years and involved significant regulatory challenges.

In 2022 the CFTC fined the company and required it to shut down operations for U.S. customers. At the time the agency viewed Polymarket as an unregistered derivatives venue, and American users were cut off as the platform relocated offshore. For nearly three years Polymarket operated internationally, mostly in regulatory limbo, even as it grew rapidly.

Everything shifted in 2025. Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing entity, which gave the company a compliant foundation to reenter the United States. This acquisition changed the regulatory landscape. With QCEX under its umbrella, Polymarket could finally connect to the U.S. derivatives system in a way that aligned with federal rules.

The CFTC then issued a targeted no-action letter providing relief for certain recordkeeping and reporting requirements related specifically to event contracts. This signaled that regulators were open to a structured, compliant form of prediction markets.

The latest approval goes further. It integrates Polymarket’s U.S. entity into the full Designated Contract Market framework, meaning it can now operate in tandem with brokers, clearing firms and professional market infrastructure.

Polymarket has not simply returned. It has transformed.

 

What the New CFTC Approval Allows

With this newly amended approval, Polymarket’s U.S. exchange gains access to traditional financial infrastructure, including:

Intermediated Access

Brokers, futures commission merchants and financial intermediaries can now connect to the exchange. Retail participants will eventually be able to access markets through their existing brokerage accounts.

Regulated Clearing and Custody

Contracts can settle through a compliant clearinghouse with full risk controls, reporting frameworks and established audit systems. This allows Polymarket to operate with the same safeguards that apply to regulated futures markets.

Clear Legal Status

The exchange now sits inside the CFTC’s regulatory perimeter. Instead of operating in a legal gray zone, Polymarket’s U.S. operations function as a recognized derivatives venue.

This level of integration was once unimaginable for prediction markets. Now it represents the new baseline.

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What Polymarket Plans to Bring to U.S. Users

Polymarket’s core innovation is event-based trading. Users buy or sell positions tied to real-world outcomes such as elections, policy decisions, sports results, economic data releases or cultural events.

The company plans a phased rollout for the U.S. market that will begin with a limited number of markets while onboarding infrastructure is tested. Over time the platform intends to expand into broader categories, including political outcomes, macroeconomic indicators and entertainment markets.

The company has raised substantial capital at valuations nearing one billion dollars, and investors expect the regulated U.S. platform to be a major growth driver.

 

Why This Moment Matters for Prediction Markets

Polymarket’s approval arrives at a time when interest in event contracts is growing across the financial, regulatory and technology sectors. Several major industry trends make this moment especially significant:

A Shift Away From Viewing Markets as Gambling

For decades regulators struggled to categorize prediction markets. The new CFTC framework acknowledges that event-based products can carry informational and hedging value rather than being dismissed as speculative wagers.

Expansion of Prediction Markets Across Industries

Traditional finance platforms, sports betting operators and fintech companies are exploring event-based products. This includes sports markets, political prediction markets and financial data markets.

Integration Into Mainstream Platforms

With intermediated access permitted, it is possible that Polymarket’s markets will eventually appear on traditional brokerage platforms, in the same accounts where users already trade stocks and futures.

Rising Legal Clarity

The regulatory structure around event contracts is still evolving, but Polymarket’s approval provides a template for others to follow. Until recently, no one could point to a clear path. Now there is one.

This is not just a step forward for Polymarket. It is a turning point for the entire prediction market industry.

 

Remaining Risks and Open Questions

While the approval is a major milestone, several challenges remain:

• State-level restrictions may still apply. Some states treat event markets as gambling, regardless of federal classification.

• Political concerns are rising as political event markets attract both attention and controversy.

• Scope of no-action relief remains limited, meaning regulators could still intervene if markets move outside approved parameters.

• Global regulatory landscape remains inconsistent, with foreign jurisdictions applying very different gambling and derivatives rules.

Polymarket’s success in the United States does not automatically eliminate international hurdles.

 

Final Thoughts

Polymarket’s return to the United States in fully regulated form marks one of the most important shifts in the history of prediction markets. A platform once forced offshore has now reentered the U.S. through a regulated, institutional-grade exchange framework. The significance of this moment goes far beyond one company. It signals that prediction markets may finally be entering the financial mainstream.

 

The next phase will determine how widely these markets spread, how they integrate with traditional finance and how regulators balance innovation with oversight. But for now, a once-fringe industry has gained legitimacy, and Polymarket stands at the center of the transformation.

 

Stay Connected

You can stay up to date on all News, Events, and Marketing of Rare Network, including Rare Evo: America’s Premier Blockchain Conference, happening  July 28th-31st, 2026 at The ARIA Resort & Casino, by following our socials on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.