Kalshi and Polymarket Post Record Volume as Prediction Markets Hit Nearly $10 Billion in November

Prediction markets are entering their strongest era to date. In November 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket collectively recorded nearly 10 billion dollars in trading volume, marking the most active month in the history of the sector. This surge shows that prediction markets are no longer niche experiments. They are becoming influential financial instruments used by millions of traders, analysts and institutions.

The industry’s rapid expansion reflects growing interest in real world event trading, increased liquidity and a shift in how investors view information markets.

 

How Kalshi and Polymarket Reached New Heights

Institutional Investment and Regulatory Clarity

Kalshi has positioned itself as the regulated prediction exchange in the United States. With a green light from federal derivatives regulators, the platform attracted significant institutional investment. Its most recent funding round valued the company at approximately 11 billion dollars.

Polymarket, on the other hand, grew from the crypto native community. Its decentralized architecture and global accessibility attracted users drawn to event based markets that operate without borders. As Polymarket expanded, its volume accelerated sharply, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Together, the two platforms now represent the core of the prediction market ecosystem. One operates with traditional oversight, and the other leverages blockchain transparency. Both models have succeeded by meeting rising demand for trading around news, sports, politics and global uncertainty.

Surge in Demand From Sports, Politics and Macroeconomics

The November boom appears to have been driven by significant events across sports and entertainment, along with heightened activity in political and macroeconomic markets. Major sporting events, international political developments and volatility in global markets created a perfect environment for event driven speculation.

Polymarket in particular saw sharp month over month growth, with more than 3 billion dollars traded in October followed by an even stronger November contribution. Kalshi also reported record numbers across political, sports and economic categories.

 

What This Means for the Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Serious Asset Class

A combined 10 billion dollars in monthly trading volume places prediction markets in the realm of legitimate financial instruments. This surge demonstrates that traders are increasingly comfortable speculating on real world outcomes using structured markets rather than informal sentiment or traditional betting platforms.

Liquidity and Market Depth Are Strengthening

As more capital enters the ecosystem, liquidity improves and spreads tighten. Higher liquidity reduces volatility and improves price accuracy, allowing events to reflect true market expectations. This makes prediction markets more reliable indicators of sentiment around elections, economic reports, policy shifts and high profile entertainment events.

Traditional Finance Meets Crypto Native Innovation

Kalshi and Polymarket represent two very different models. Kalshi is regulated, compliant and geared toward traditional market participants. Polymarket is decentralized, global and capable of listing a wide variety of markets. The success of both platforms shows that prediction markets can appeal to different audiences and regulatory frameworks while still growing in parallel.

New Hedging and Speculation Tools

Prediction markets enable traders to hedge against real world uncertainty. Instead of relying solely on equities, commodities or forex markets, users can now hedge or speculate directly on election outcomes, interest rate decisions, policy changes or cultural events. This is a fundamental expansion of what financial markets can price.

 

Challenges That Still Remain

Prediction markets face headwinds even as they achieve record volume.

• Regulatory uncertainty. Some jurisdictions classify certain event markets as gambling, while others treat them as derivatives.

• Concentration of liquidity. Large events dominate attention, leaving smaller markets with limited participation.

• Volatility around major events. Binary markets can swing sharply as news breaks, creating risk for traders and market makers.

• Infrastructure demands. Platforms must scale securely to handle institutional interest and larger volumes.

How Kalshi, Polymarket and future competitors handle these challenges will help determine whether prediction markets can sustain long term growth.

 

Final Thoughts

The combined 10 billion dollar surge in November volume from Kalshi and Polymarket signals a major shift in the financial landscape. Prediction markets are becoming mainstream. They are attracting serious capital, gaining institutional legitimacy and proving that people want tools that let them trade on real world information.

Whether it is politics, macroeconomics, sports or cultural events, prediction markets offer a new expression of financial participation. If growth continues, they may soon become a standard part of global finance, sitting alongside equities, futures, options and digital assets.

 

This moment marks the transition from niche concept to powerful market infrastructure. The prediction market revolution is now fully underway.

 

Stay Connected

You can stay up to date on all News, Events, and Marketing of Rare Network, including Rare Evo: America’s Premier Blockchain Conference, happening  July 28th-31st, 2026 at The ARIA Resort & Casino, by following our socials on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.

CFTC Eyes First Leveraged Spot Crypto Products by Next Month

 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly preparing to allow leveraged spot crypto asset products to launch as early as next month. These products would enable retail and institutional traders to buy and sell cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether on a spot basis with margin or leverage, similar to traditional commodity trading instruments.

This initiative marks a major shift in U.S. crypto regulation. For years, regulators treated spot crypto as largely unregulated or under-enforced. Now, the CFTC is using its existing authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to extend oversight to spot crypto trading, especially trades involving leverage, margin, or financing.

 

What the Proposal Means

Leveraged spot crypto products would work like this: A designated contract market (DCM) or registered futures exchange would list spot crypto contracts that are backed by actual delivery of crypto or tracked via underlying assets. Traders could engage in margin trades on the spot market rather than relying solely on futures or derivatives.

This means platforms regulated under the CFTC could list inventory of crypto assets, allow participants to borrow or finance positions, and require clearing, custody, and risk-management frameworks similar to those in commodities markets.

The CFTC recently launched a “listed spot crypto trading initiative,” inviting comment on how to list these products, including how to handle clearinghouses, custodian arrangements, and whether crypto assets are commodities or securities. That initiative referenced Section 2(c)(2)(D) of the Commodity Exchange Act, which specifically governs retail commodity transactions offered on a leveraged, margined, or financed basis.

The CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also issued a joint staff statement affirming that current law does not prohibit regulated exchanges from listing certain spot crypto asset products, including those with leverage. Together, these regulatory moves signal a clear shift toward opening margin and leverage trading of spot crypto in the U.S.

 

Why It’s Significant for Crypto Markets

1. Regulatory clarity and scale
   For years, one of the key obstacles in the U.S. crypto market was uncertainty over how spot trading with leverage could function under existing law. By establishing a path for leveraged spot crypto trading under CFTC authority, the industry gains a bridge to larger-scale, regulated activity.

2. Margin and leverage could bring more liquidity
   Allowing spot crypto trading with margin may attract more participants, both retail and institutional, because they can use less capital to gain exposure. That could increase market depth and volatility.

3. Domestic competition with offshore exchanges
   Many existing leveraged crypto products are offered by overseas exchanges that lack full U.S. oversight. A regulated domestic pathway could shift volume from offshore platforms to U.S. venues, improving transparency and investor protection.

4. Integration with futures and derivatives markets
   Because these spot leveraged products could be listed on futures exchanges, the ecosystem of trading, hedging, and settlement may become more integrated. This could bring spot, futures, and options markets into closer alignment for crypto assets.

 

The Regulatory Mechanics and Timeline

The key regulatory anchor is Section 2(c)(2)(D) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which states that retail commodity transactions offered on a leveraged, margined, or financed basis must be conducted on a DCM or foreign board of trade (FBOT). Historically, this applied to futures and certain commodities. The CFTC is now interpreting this to apply to spot crypto if leverage or financing is involved.

On August 4, 2025, the CFTC launched its listed spot crypto trading initiative. Regulators invited public comments on how to implement listing spot crypto asset contracts on designated contract markets. Meanwhile, the CFTC’s acting chair has engaged with regulated exchanges and clearing organizations to prepare the framework.

Separately, the SEC-CFTC joint staff statement issued in early September affirmed that regulated U.S. exchanges may list spot crypto asset products and that margin and leverage are within scope, provided proper registration and oversight exist.

According to multiple reports, the CFTC is in active discussions with major exchanges, including futures venues such as CME, Cboe, and ICE, as well as crypto-native platforms, to list these leveraged spot products possibly by next month. That timeline positions the rollout sooner than many expected, though final approvals and exchange rule submissions remain necessary.

 

Potential Risks and Industry Implications

While this development could scale regulated crypto markets, several risks remain:

• Clearing and custody risk: Spot leveraged contracts require robust clearinghouses and custodians. Any weakness in settlement or collateral arrangements could create systemic stress.

• Market risk: Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. If leveraged retail positions grow without sufficient risk controls, it could increase volatility or trigger sharp liquidations.

• Regulatory arbitrage: As U.S. venues expand these offerings, overseas platforms may still offer different terms. Fragmentation could persist unless the domestic offering is competitive on cost and efficiency.

• Securities law overlap: The CFTC’s effort applies to “commodity” crypto assets. If tokens are deemed securities, the SEC retains oversight. Platforms must ensure proper asset classification and compliance.

 

What to Watch Next

• Exchange rule filings: Watch for futures exchanges or DCMs submitting rule changes or product proposals for leveraged spot crypto contracts.

• Clearinghouse partnerships: Expect new collaborations between clearing organizations and crypto custodians, which are essential for safe margin and settlement operations.

• Public feedback: The CFTC’s open comment process will reveal where industry stakeholders align or disagree on the proposal’s structure.

• Asset inclusion: Bitcoin and Ether are expected to be first, but whether other tokens join early will indicate how broad the regulatory green light truly is.

• Margin parameters: The permitted leverage levels, such as 2x, 5x, or 10x, will determine the potential scale of new trading activity.

 

Final Thoughts

The CFTC’s push to approve leveraged spot crypto products marks a pivotal moment in U.S. digital asset regulation. It moves the market closer to a structure where spot trading of crypto under margin and leverage is not only possible but also regulated in line with traditional commodities.

For the crypto industry, this means deeper liquidity, greater institutional involvement, and a more secure trading environment. Yet it also raises the stakes. Leverage and margin create opportunity but also amplify risk. The success of this initiative will depend on how carefully exchanges, clearinghouses, and regulators manage execution and oversight.

 

If the launch proceeds as early as next month, it could accelerate crypto’s integration into mainstream financial markets and bring a new era of regulated spot trading to the U.S. The next few weeks may determine whether leveraged spot crypto becomes a lasting cornerstone of the industry or remains a tightly controlled experiment.

 

Stay Connected

You can stay up to date on all News, Events, and Marketing of Rare Network, including Rare Evo: America’s Premier Blockchain Conference, happening  July 28th-31st, 2026 at The ARIA Resort & Casino, by following our socials on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.