Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to Halt Sports Prediction Contracts

 

Tennessee regulators have ordered Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to immediately stop offering sports-related prediction contracts to residents of the state, escalating a growing conflict between state gambling authorities and federally regulated prediction markets.

The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist orders on January 9, demanding that the three platforms halt all sports event contracts, void any open positions tied to Tennessee users, and refund customer funds by the end of the month.

State officials argue the products function as unlicensed sports betting under Tennessee law, regardless of how the companies describe them.

The move places Tennessee alongside a growing list of states pushing back against prediction markets that allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of sporting events, elections, or real-world events. While the platforms frame these products as financial instruments, state regulators increasingly see them as gambling by another name.

 

What Tennessee Is Demanding

According to the orders, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com must immediately cease offering sports contracts to Tennessee residents. Any existing sports-related contracts must be canceled, and all funds deposited by users in the state must be returned by January 31.

Failure to comply could expose the companies to civil penalties, injunctions, and possible criminal enforcement under Tennessee’s sports gaming laws.

The council’s position is straightforward. If money is being risked on the outcome of a sporting event, the state considers it sports wagering, which requires a license, tax payments, and adherence to consumer protection rules.

 

The Regulatory Fault Line

At the heart of the dispute is a long-running jurisdictional battle between state gambling regulators and the federal framework governing derivatives and commodities trading.

Kalshi and Polymarket operate under federal oversight tied to commodities regulation, and Crypto.com has positioned its event contracts as a similar financial product. The companies argue that their platforms fall outside traditional sports betting laws and should be regulated at the federal level.

Tennessee, like several other states, rejects that argument. State officials maintain that federal oversight does not override state authority when it comes to gambling conducted within state borders.

This disagreement has become one of the most contentious regulatory issues facing crypto-adjacent markets in the U.S.

 

A Pattern Across the States

Tennessee’s action is not an isolated case. Over the past year, multiple states have issued warnings or cease-and-desist orders targeting prediction markets tied to sports outcomes. Recently, Coinbase filed suit against Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois. Those states argue that Coinbase's prediction markets amount to illegal gambling and are attempting to ban them there.

Gaming regulators in states such as Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, and Illinois have raised similar concerns, arguing that prediction markets undermine state-regulated sports betting ecosystems while avoiding licensing requirements and taxes.

In some cases, platforms have pulled back voluntarily. In others, companies have opted to fight.

Kalshi has already challenged similar enforcement actions in court, arguing that state gambling laws are being improperly applied to federally regulated markets. The outcome of those cases could shape the future of prediction markets nationwide.

 

Why States Are Pushing Back Now

State regulators say the issue is not just about definitions, but about consumer protection and regulatory consistency.

Licensed sportsbooks are required to meet strict standards related to age verification, responsible gambling tools, fund segregation, and auditing. States argue that prediction markets offering sports contracts operate outside those guardrails while competing for the same customers.

There is also growing concern that prediction markets blur the line between financial trading and gambling in ways existing laws were never designed to address.

For regulators, allowing these products to operate unchecked could weaken the authority of state gaming frameworks that were carefully built following the legalization of sports betting.

 

What Happens Next

The Tennessee order adds new pressure on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com at a time when prediction markets are expanding rapidly and attracting increased attention from both traders and policymakers.

The companies could comply and exit the state, challenge the order in court, or push for clearer federal guidance that limits states’ ability to intervene.

Until that happens, the industry remains stuck in a regulatory gray zone, where legality depends less on federal approval and more on how individual states choose to interpret decades-old gambling laws.

 

For crypto-linked prediction markets, Tennessee’s action is another reminder that regulatory risk in the U.S. remains fragmented, unpredictable, and increasingly aggressive.

Polymarket To Bring Prediction Market Data To The Wall Street Journal In Dow Jones Deal

 

Dow Jones is bringing prediction market data into the center of mainstream financial news, and the move says a lot about how institutions now think about expectations.

Through a new partnership, Polymarket’s real-time probabilities will begin appearing across Dow Jones properties, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. These are not experimental sidebars or crypto-only sections. They are some of the most influential platforms in global finance. Placing prediction market data alongside prices, earnings estimates, and economic indicators reflects a belief that expectations themselves are now core financial information.

This is not about betting for entertainment. It is about who defines what the market thinks, and how fast that belief can be measured.

 

From curiosity to core signal

Prediction markets spent years on the margins, popular with political traders and information obsessives who wanted a cleaner read on future outcomes. What changed was not the concept, but the credibility and distribution.

Dow Jones is not treating Polymarket as a novelty widget. The company plans to integrate its data directly into consumer-facing products, including prominent digital placements and market-focused pages. One early example is an earnings calendar built around market-implied expectations rather than analyst consensus or corporate guidance alone.

Markets move on belief before they move on fact. Earnings surprises, regulatory decisions, court rulings, and central bank signals all trade on anticipation. Prediction markets make that anticipation visible in a single number that updates continuously.

For readers, the value is immediate. Instead of asking what already happened, the data answers a more urgent question: what does the market think is about to happen right now?

 

Why institutions are choosing markets over polls

For decades, polling was the default way media organizations measured expectations. Ask a group what they think will happen, average the answers, and publish the result. That model worked when belief changed slowly and news cycles moved in days rather than minutes.

That is no longer the case.

Prediction markets like Polymarket offer a live, self-correcting signal that polling cannot match. Participants are not just stating opinions, they are committing capital. When new information appears, prices adjust immediately. There is no waiting for another survey, no methodological lag, and no static snapshot that begins aging the moment it is published.

For Dow Jones, this matters because speed and credibility are now inseparable. Polls depend on sampling assumptions, response honesty, and weighting choices that are easy to question after the fact. Prediction markets push that weighting into the market itself. Influence emerges through price, not editorial judgment.

Markets also surface uncertainty more honestly. A poll can show a stable percentage while masking deep disagreement. A prediction market exposes that tension directly through volatility and rapid probability swings. For financial coverage built around anticipation rather than confirmation, that visibility is valuable.

In that sense, Polymarket data is not replacing journalism. It is replacing an aging expectations tool.

 

Built for modern financial media

Financial news has steadily moved toward modular data. Futures boxes, rate probability tables, volatility gauges, and dashboards now sit alongside traditional reporting. Prediction market probabilities fit naturally into that structure.

They are compact, intuitive, and fast. A 64 percent probability communicates instantly, without requiring paragraphs of caveats. For audiences already trained to think in odds and ranges, the format feels native.

Dow Jones executives have described prediction market data as a way to show collective belief in real time. The wording is careful for a reason. These numbers are not forecasts handed down as truth. They are signals of sentiment, continuously updated, sometimes wrong, often revealing.

 

Part of a broader shift, not a one-off

The Dow Jones partnership is not happening in isolation. CNBC recently announced a multi-year deal with Kalshi to integrate prediction data across its television and digital platforms. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has made a strategic investment in Polymarket and positioned its data as a product for institutional clients.

The pattern is clear. Prediction markets are trying to move from destination platforms to infrastructure. Less about attracting users to trade, more about embedding probabilities wherever decisions are made.

For publishers, that creates a new class of data product. For prediction platforms, distribution is the growth strategy.

 

How prediction data reshapes coverage

The most important change will be editorial, not technical.

Sudden shifts in probability can become story drivers. Why did expectations flip overnight? What information entered the market? Who acted first? The probability move becomes the signal, and the reporting explains it.

Earnings coverage is an obvious fit, but so are regulatory deadlines, major lawsuits, macro announcements, and elections. Anywhere the market is waiting, prediction data creates a visible tension line that journalism can follow.

Used well, these markets do not replace analysis. They sharpen it.

 

The risks are still there

Prediction markets are not neutral truth engines.

Thin liquidity can create false confidence. Small groups of traders can push prices, especially in niche markets. Numbers that look authoritative can mislead if they are presented without context.

There are also real issues around contract definitions and resolution. Ambiguity can turn into public disputes, and those disputes matter more when probabilities are embedded in major media brands.

Regulatory uncertainty remains part of the backdrop as well. As prediction data reaches broader retail audiences through mainstream publishers, scrutiny is likely to increase.

For Dow Jones, the challenge is framing. These probabilities must be treated like market data, not predictions carved in stone.

 

Why this matters long term

This partnership points to a larger shift in how financial information is consumed.

Markets increasingly trade on narratives, second-order beliefs, and collective anticipation. Prediction markets make those forces legible. Media companies want tools that help readers understand not just what happened, but what everyone thinks is about to happen.

For Polymarket, the strategy is clear. Becoming embedded in the workflows of investors, analysts, and journalists is more powerful than being another destination site.

For financial media, this is a bet that probabilities will become as standard as price charts.

 

And for readers, it suggests the future of market news will focus less on confident forecasts and more on watching belief itself move, in real time.

 

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Coinbase has sued Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois today, but it does not look like a typical regulatory skirmish. On the surface, it was about a few cease-and-desist orders targeting prediction market contracts. In practice, it put a much bigger question on the table. What exactly are prediction markets supposed to be?

Are they casinos in disguise, digital poker rooms with better UX, or a new kind of financial market that belongs under federal oversight?

The answer matters, because the wrong classification could freeze a fast-growing corner of finance in legal limbo.

 

Why Coinbase Is Taking States to Court

The states argue that Coinbase’s prediction markets amount to illegal gambling. Users put money down on outcomes. Some win, some lose. No state gambling license, no approval.

Coinbase sees it very differently. These contracts, the company argues, are event-based derivatives. They look like futures, trade like futures, and are already subject to federal commodities law. The Chief Legal Officer for Coinbase, Paul Grewal, stated in an X post on Friday that the company filed the lawsuits to "confirm what is clear" and that prediction market should fall under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

If states are allowed to regulate these markets anyway, the logic goes, national liquidity disappears. A market that works in one state but not another stops being a market at all. But, there are comparisons to existing gambling laws and we broke those down for you.

 

The Casino Comparison Only Goes So Far

State regulators tend to reach for the casino analogy first, and it is easy to see why. There is money at risk. Outcomes are uncertain. The optics are not subtle.

But structurally, prediction markets do not behave like casinos. Casinos set the odds. The house always wins over time. The product is entertainment.

Prediction markets do not work that way. Prices are set by participants. New information moves markets. There is no built-in house edge. The value comes from aggregating beliefs into a number that says something useful about the future.

Calling that gambling because it involves money is a shortcut, and not a very precise one.

 

Poker Explains the Skill Argument, and Its Limits

Poker is the comparison that usually comes next. Courts have spent years debating whether poker is mostly luck or mostly skill. Many have concluded that skill dominates over time, even if chance plays a role in the short run.

Yet poker is still regulated as gambling in most places. Not because it lacks skill, but because the law never quite figured out where else to put it.

That history matters. It shows how activities that clearly reward information and decision-making can still end up trapped in gaming frameworks that were built for something else entirely.

Prediction markets risk repeating that mistake. Like poker, they reward skill. Unlike poker, they are not games. They are continuous markets with prices, liquidity, and arbitrage. Treating them like a card room because money changes hands misses the point.

 

Why Prediction Markets Look Like Futures Markets

If you strip away the cultural baggage, prediction markets start to look familiar. They are standardized contracts tied to future outcomes. Prices reflect probability. Traders respond to data.

That is the same basic logic behind futures contracts tied to interest rates, inflation, or commodities. Those markets involve speculation, risk, and uncertainty too. They are regulated, but they are not treated as gambling.

This is where Coinbase’s argument lands. Congress already created a regulator for markets like this. The CFTC exists to oversee contracts that trade future outcomes, including event-based ones. The fact that an outcome is an election or a policy decision does not change the structure of the market.

 

What Changes If Coinbase Wins

If Coinbase wins, the impact goes well beyond these three states.

First, jurisdiction becomes clearer. States would no longer be able to regulate federally governed prediction markets simply by labeling them gambling. That alone would remove one of the biggest sources of uncertainty hanging over the industry.

Second, the casino argument loses legal weight. Courts would be acknowledging that uncertainty plus money does not automatically equal gambling, especially when prices are discovered through open trading rather than set by an operator.

Third, prediction markets would finally escape the poker problem. They would not sit in a gray zone where skill is recognized but regulation never quite fits. Instead, they would fall under a framework designed for markets, not games.

With that clarity, these markets could scale. Liquidity would deepen. Institutional participants could step in. Contracts tied to economic data, climate outcomes, and corporate milestones could expand without the constant risk of state-level shutdowns.

Over time, prediction markets could start to look less like a regulatory headache and more like infrastructure. Another tool, alongside surveys and models, for figuring out what the world might do next.

 

A Bigger Signal About Regulation

This case is not really about Coinbase. It is about whether U.S. regulation can adapt when finance starts to blur into something new, a question that has stifled digital asset growth for years.

Casinos deal in chance. Poker deals in skill inside a gaming framework. Futures markets deal in information. Prediction markets belong in the third category, even if they make people uncomfortable.

If courts agree, it would send a signal that regulation can still be about function rather than analogy. That is not a radical idea. It is how most financial markets came to exist in the first place. Prediction markets are here to stay. We've seen huge partnerships with major media news outlets and exchanges. The regulatory details need to be clearly defined for this emerging industry.

 

And if that happens, prediction markets may finally stop being debated as gambling, and start being treated as what they have been trying to become all along. Markets that trade in probabilities, under rules built for markets, not casinos.

 

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Kalshi Integrates TRON to Expand On-Chain Liquidity for Prediction Market

Kalshi is gaining deeper onchain liquidity with new TRON integration.

 

The U.S. regulated prediction market operator has integrated the TRON network, expanding on-chain access to liquidity for what it calls the world’s largest prediction market. The move gives traders new ways to move funds in and out of Kalshi using blockchain rails, while signaling that the company is getting more serious about meeting crypto native users where they already are.

At a basic level, the integration allows users to deposit and withdraw assets like USDT on TRON directly into Kalshi. That may sound incremental, but for a platform built inside the U.S. regulatory perimeter, it is a meaningful shift. Blockchain rails offer faster settlement, lower friction, and access to global liquidity that traditional payment systems still struggle to match.

Kalshi’s bet is that prediction markets work better when capital can move freely.

 

A Hybrid Market Takes Shape

Kalshi occupies a strange but increasingly important corner of finance. It operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which gives it the ability to offer event based contracts tied to real world outcomes like inflation prints, election results, and economic data releases.

What makes Kalshi different is that it is now trying to blend that regulated structure with crypto infrastructure.

By integrating TRON, and previously Solana, Kalshi is building what amounts to a hybrid market. The core exchange remains regulated and off-chain, but the access points are increasingly on-chain. Users can tap blockchain liquidity while still trading contracts that settle under U.S. rules.

For Kalshi, liquidity is the whole game. Prediction markets only work when there are enough participants on both sides of a trade. Crypto users already understand how to move stablecoins, bridge assets, and arbitrage prices across venues. Bringing those users into Kalshi’s ecosystem could deepen markets that have historically been thinner than traditional financial products.

 

Why TRON

TRON’s appeal here is straightforward. It is one of the most widely used blockchain networks in the world for real payment activity, particularly stablecoin transfers. A significant portion of global USDT volume already flows through TRON every day, making it a natural fit for a platform focused on liquidity and accessibility.

For Kalshi, that usage matters more than brand perception. TRON offers fast settlement, low transaction costs, and a network that is already embedded in how traders move dollars on-chain. Those characteristics make it easier for both institutional and international users to move capital efficiently without friction eating into trading activity.

TRON’s reach outside the United States is also a feature, not a bug. Prediction markets benefit from diverse participation and constant flow, and TRON’s global footprint helps bring in users who already operate on-chain as part of their daily financial activity.

The integration also reflects a pragmatic approach. Rather than betting on hype cycles, Kalshi is aligning with infrastructure that is already proven at scale. Alongside its work on Solana, TRON adds another high throughput rail that supports Kalshi’s broader goal of making prediction markets more liquid, accessible, and always on.

 

Regulation Meets Crypto Reality

Kalshi’s regulatory status remains central to its pitch. Unlike fully decentralized prediction markets, Kalshi operates under explicit U.S. approval. That has allowed it to offer contracts that other platforms either cannot or will not touch.

At the same time, regulation comes with constraints. Kalshi cannot simply open the floodgates to every DeFi user worldwide. Integrating blockchains like TRON is a way to expand access without abandoning compliance.

It is a careful balancing act. Too much decentralization risks regulatory pushback. Too little innovation risks irrelevance in a market where crypto native platforms move faster.

So far, Kalshi seems intent on threading that needle.

 

A Growing Role in Media and Markets

Prediction markets have also become more visible in mainstream discourse, and Kalshi has leaned into that. Its data is increasingly referenced as a real time signal of market expectations, particularly around politics and macroeconomic events.

That visibility matters. Prediction markets tend to gain relevance when people start trusting them as indicators rather than curiosities. More liquidity, especially from crypto users accustomed to trading around the clock, could reinforce that feedback loop.

The more capital flows through these markets, the more informative prices become.

 

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Kalshi and Polymarket Post Record Volume as Prediction Markets Hit Nearly $10 Billion in November

Prediction markets are entering their strongest era to date. In November 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket collectively recorded nearly 10 billion dollars in trading volume, marking the most active month in the history of the sector. This surge shows that prediction markets are no longer niche experiments. They are becoming influential financial instruments used by millions of traders, analysts and institutions.

The industry’s rapid expansion reflects growing interest in real world event trading, increased liquidity and a shift in how investors view information markets.

 

How Kalshi and Polymarket Reached New Heights

Institutional Investment and Regulatory Clarity

Kalshi has positioned itself as the regulated prediction exchange in the United States. With a green light from federal derivatives regulators, the platform attracted significant institutional investment. Its most recent funding round valued the company at approximately 11 billion dollars.

Polymarket, on the other hand, grew from the crypto native community. Its decentralized architecture and global accessibility attracted users drawn to event based markets that operate without borders. As Polymarket expanded, its volume accelerated sharply, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Together, the two platforms now represent the core of the prediction market ecosystem. One operates with traditional oversight, and the other leverages blockchain transparency. Both models have succeeded by meeting rising demand for trading around news, sports, politics and global uncertainty.

Surge in Demand From Sports, Politics and Macroeconomics

The November boom appears to have been driven by significant events across sports and entertainment, along with heightened activity in political and macroeconomic markets. Major sporting events, international political developments and volatility in global markets created a perfect environment for event driven speculation.

Polymarket in particular saw sharp month over month growth, with more than 3 billion dollars traded in October followed by an even stronger November contribution. Kalshi also reported record numbers across political, sports and economic categories.

 

What This Means for the Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Serious Asset Class

A combined 10 billion dollars in monthly trading volume places prediction markets in the realm of legitimate financial instruments. This surge demonstrates that traders are increasingly comfortable speculating on real world outcomes using structured markets rather than informal sentiment or traditional betting platforms.

Liquidity and Market Depth Are Strengthening

As more capital enters the ecosystem, liquidity improves and spreads tighten. Higher liquidity reduces volatility and improves price accuracy, allowing events to reflect true market expectations. This makes prediction markets more reliable indicators of sentiment around elections, economic reports, policy shifts and high profile entertainment events.

Traditional Finance Meets Crypto Native Innovation

Kalshi and Polymarket represent two very different models. Kalshi is regulated, compliant and geared toward traditional market participants. Polymarket is decentralized, global and capable of listing a wide variety of markets. The success of both platforms shows that prediction markets can appeal to different audiences and regulatory frameworks while still growing in parallel.

New Hedging and Speculation Tools

Prediction markets enable traders to hedge against real world uncertainty. Instead of relying solely on equities, commodities or forex markets, users can now hedge or speculate directly on election outcomes, interest rate decisions, policy changes or cultural events. This is a fundamental expansion of what financial markets can price.

 

Challenges That Still Remain

Prediction markets face headwinds even as they achieve record volume.

• Regulatory uncertainty. Some jurisdictions classify certain event markets as gambling, while others treat them as derivatives.

• Concentration of liquidity. Large events dominate attention, leaving smaller markets with limited participation.

• Volatility around major events. Binary markets can swing sharply as news breaks, creating risk for traders and market makers.

• Infrastructure demands. Platforms must scale securely to handle institutional interest and larger volumes.

How Kalshi, Polymarket and future competitors handle these challenges will help determine whether prediction markets can sustain long term growth.

 

Final Thoughts

The combined 10 billion dollar surge in November volume from Kalshi and Polymarket signals a major shift in the financial landscape. Prediction markets are becoming mainstream. They are attracting serious capital, gaining institutional legitimacy and proving that people want tools that let them trade on real world information.

Whether it is politics, macroeconomics, sports or cultural events, prediction markets offer a new expression of financial participation. If growth continues, they may soon become a standard part of global finance, sitting alongside equities, futures, options and digital assets.

 

This moment marks the transition from niche concept to powerful market infrastructure. The prediction market revolution is now fully underway.

 

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Polymarket Secures CFTC Approval, Marking a Landmark Return to the U.S. Regulated Market

Polymarket, one of the most well-known crypto prediction platforms, has officially secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a fully regulated exchange in the United States. This milestone represents the end of a long regulatory saga and marks the beginning of a new era for event-based markets in the American financial system.

Once viewed primarily as an offshore curiosity on the fringes of crypto, Polymarket is now entering the most regulated derivatives market in the world with a structure that resembles a traditional exchange. The approval signals a wider shift in how prediction markets are treated, not as gray-area gambling products but as legitimate financial instruments with real informational and economic value.

 

A Long Road Back: From Enforcement Actions to Full Approval

Polymarket’s path to reentry took several years and involved significant regulatory challenges.

In 2022 the CFTC fined the company and required it to shut down operations for U.S. customers. At the time the agency viewed Polymarket as an unregistered derivatives venue, and American users were cut off as the platform relocated offshore. For nearly three years Polymarket operated internationally, mostly in regulatory limbo, even as it grew rapidly.

Everything shifted in 2025. Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing entity, which gave the company a compliant foundation to reenter the United States. This acquisition changed the regulatory landscape. With QCEX under its umbrella, Polymarket could finally connect to the U.S. derivatives system in a way that aligned with federal rules.

The CFTC then issued a targeted no-action letter providing relief for certain recordkeeping and reporting requirements related specifically to event contracts. This signaled that regulators were open to a structured, compliant form of prediction markets.

The latest approval goes further. It integrates Polymarket’s U.S. entity into the full Designated Contract Market framework, meaning it can now operate in tandem with brokers, clearing firms and professional market infrastructure.

Polymarket has not simply returned. It has transformed.

 

What the New CFTC Approval Allows

With this newly amended approval, Polymarket’s U.S. exchange gains access to traditional financial infrastructure, including:

Intermediated Access

Brokers, futures commission merchants and financial intermediaries can now connect to the exchange. Retail participants will eventually be able to access markets through their existing brokerage accounts.

Regulated Clearing and Custody

Contracts can settle through a compliant clearinghouse with full risk controls, reporting frameworks and established audit systems. This allows Polymarket to operate with the same safeguards that apply to regulated futures markets.

Clear Legal Status

The exchange now sits inside the CFTC’s regulatory perimeter. Instead of operating in a legal gray zone, Polymarket’s U.S. operations function as a recognized derivatives venue.

This level of integration was once unimaginable for prediction markets. Now it represents the new baseline.

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What Polymarket Plans to Bring to U.S. Users

Polymarket’s core innovation is event-based trading. Users buy or sell positions tied to real-world outcomes such as elections, policy decisions, sports results, economic data releases or cultural events.

The company plans a phased rollout for the U.S. market that will begin with a limited number of markets while onboarding infrastructure is tested. Over time the platform intends to expand into broader categories, including political outcomes, macroeconomic indicators and entertainment markets.

The company has raised substantial capital at valuations nearing one billion dollars, and investors expect the regulated U.S. platform to be a major growth driver.

 

Why This Moment Matters for Prediction Markets

Polymarket’s approval arrives at a time when interest in event contracts is growing across the financial, regulatory and technology sectors. Several major industry trends make this moment especially significant:

A Shift Away From Viewing Markets as Gambling

For decades regulators struggled to categorize prediction markets. The new CFTC framework acknowledges that event-based products can carry informational and hedging value rather than being dismissed as speculative wagers.

Expansion of Prediction Markets Across Industries

Traditional finance platforms, sports betting operators and fintech companies are exploring event-based products. This includes sports markets, political prediction markets and financial data markets.

Integration Into Mainstream Platforms

With intermediated access permitted, it is possible that Polymarket’s markets will eventually appear on traditional brokerage platforms, in the same accounts where users already trade stocks and futures.

Rising Legal Clarity

The regulatory structure around event contracts is still evolving, but Polymarket’s approval provides a template for others to follow. Until recently, no one could point to a clear path. Now there is one.

This is not just a step forward for Polymarket. It is a turning point for the entire prediction market industry.

 

Remaining Risks and Open Questions

While the approval is a major milestone, several challenges remain:

• State-level restrictions may still apply. Some states treat event markets as gambling, regardless of federal classification.

• Political concerns are rising as political event markets attract both attention and controversy.

• Scope of no-action relief remains limited, meaning regulators could still intervene if markets move outside approved parameters.

• Global regulatory landscape remains inconsistent, with foreign jurisdictions applying very different gambling and derivatives rules.

Polymarket’s success in the United States does not automatically eliminate international hurdles.

 

Final Thoughts

Polymarket’s return to the United States in fully regulated form marks one of the most important shifts in the history of prediction markets. A platform once forced offshore has now reentered the U.S. through a regulated, institutional-grade exchange framework. The significance of this moment goes far beyond one company. It signals that prediction markets may finally be entering the financial mainstream.

 

The next phase will determine how widely these markets spread, how they integrate with traditional finance and how regulators balance innovation with oversight. But for now, a once-fringe industry has gained legitimacy, and Polymarket stands at the center of the transformation.

 

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Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Soars, Signaling Surge in Retail Crypto Engagement

Robinhood Markets reported that its cryptocurrency-trading revenue surged by 339% in Q3 2025 to $268 million. This performance underscores the increasing role of crypto in Robinhood’s business model and reflects broader retail investor enthusiasm for digital assets. The rise comes against a backdrop of product innovation, global expansion and favorable sector sentiment.

 

Strong Performance Across the Platform

While crypto trading was a standout, Robinhood’s overall performance paints a positive picture of a company gaining traction. Earlier in the year the company reported Q2 revenue of $989 million, up 45% year-on-year and with crypto revenue alone up 98% to $160 million. The momentum built into stronger Q3 performance where crypto contributed a larger share of transaction-based revenues. The company’s expanded crypto product offerings, including new tokens, staking and acquisition of Bitstamp, helped fuel activity.

 

Why Crypto Revenue Grew So Fast

Several factors helped drive Robinhood’s crypto-business acceleration:

• Retail engagement in crypto trading is high. With more tokens listed, easier access and zero-commission trading, Robinhood has captured more users’ attention.
• Global expansion. The acquisition of Bitstamp gave Robinhood more licensing in Europe and access to more markets, increasing liquidity and cross-border trading.
• New product launches. Added services such as crypto staking in the U.S. and EU, tokenized stocks, and enhanced platform features boosted user activity.
• Macro environment. Periods of heightened crypto volatility and interest often correspond with higher trading volumes and revenue for platforms like Robinhood.

 

Implications for Robinhood and Crypto Platforms

For Robinhood, the spike in crypto revenue suggests the firm is successfully evolving beyond a retail stock-trading app into a broader digital-asset-centric platform. Crypto trading is no longer a niche segment, it is now a meaningful driver of revenue and growth.

For the broader crypto industry, Robinhood’s results highlight several important trends:

• Retail platforms with strong user bases and simple onboarding for crypto are gaining a larger share of trading volume and attention.
• Crypto is becoming more integrated into mainstream fintech business models, not just peripheral to them.
• Expanding regulatory clarity and global licensing (as seen via Bitstamp acquisition) are helping platforms scale crypto services globally.
• The overlap between equities, options and crypto trading is becoming more pronounced, as platforms leverage overlapping customer bases.

 

What to Watch Moving Forward

• Sustainability of the growth. Strong quarter-to-quarter gains are impressive but maintaining this requires continuous product innovation, user acquisition and regulatory compliance.
• Crypto revenue mix and token exposure. As crypto revenue grows, the breakdown by asset class, trading type and geography will matter for understanding risk and opportunity.
• Platform expansion and licensing. Global regulatory regimes continue to evolve, so Robinhood’s ability to scale globally while maintaining compliance will be key.
• Competitive landscape. Other platforms are competing aggressively in crypto trading, tokenization and wallet services. Robinhood’s product velocity and customer experience will determine how it holds competitive edge.

 

Robinhood’s Market Strength and Expanding Footprint

Robinhood’s impressive crypto performance came alongside strong overall financial results. Although shares dipped about 2% in after-hours trading, the stock remains up roughly 260% year-to-date, reflecting the market’s confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory.

Chief Financial Officer Jason Warnick said the quarter highlighted “another period of profitable growth” and emphasized the company’s diversification. He noted that Robinhood added two new business lines, Prediction Markets and Bitstamp, each already generating around $100 million in annualized revenue.

“Q4 is off to a strong start,” Warnick added, pointing to record trading volumes across equities, options, prediction markets, and futures, along with new highs for margin balances.

The company’s market capitalization has now reached $126 billion, placing it ahead of major competitors like Coinbase, which also reported strong earnings recently.

These results follow a string of moves aimed at deepening Robinhood’s role in the global crypto ecosystem. The acquisition of Bitstamp, one of the world’s oldest crypto exchanges, gave Robinhood an established regulatory presence and a user base spanning more than 50 countries. This acquisition not only expanded access to international markets but also strengthened its compliance infrastructure — a crucial advantage as global regulators define the next phase of crypto policy.

 

Final Thoughts

Robinhood’s record-setting quarter represents more than just strong numbers, it highlights a pivotal transformation in how traditional fintech and digital assets are converging.

The company’s 339% surge in crypto trading revenue reflects growing confidence among retail investors, while its acquisitions and new business lines show a clear pivot toward becoming a comprehensive global trading platform. With Bitstamp under its umbrella and new markets like prediction trading contributing nine-figure revenues, Robinhood is building an ecosystem that spans equities, options, futures, and crypto — all within a single, regulated framework.

Despite the minor dip in after-hours trading, investor sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Robinhood’s valuation of $126 billion underscores that the market views the company not as a speculative fintech, but as a major financial institution reshaping digital trading.

As the boundaries between finance and crypto continue to blur, Robinhood’s expansion signals a broader truth: the next generation of global markets will not separate traditional and digital assets. Instead, they will coexist on platforms that offer both speed and security — and Robinhood appears determined to lead that charge.

 

 

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Trump Media Partners with Crypto.com to Launch Prediction Markets on Truth Social

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind Truth Social, has announced a partnership with Crypto.com to introduce a new feature called Truth Predict — an integrated prediction market directly within the social media platform. This marks one of the most ambitious attempts yet to merge social engagement, crypto adoption, and financial speculation into one ecosystem.

The collaboration could position Truth Social as the first mainstream social media network to enable users to trade directly on real-world events such as elections, economic data releases, and sports outcomes. For Crypto.com, it represents another step in expanding its derivatives and market-infrastructure footprint beyond traditional exchanges.

 

How Truth Predict Will Work

Truth Predict will allow Truth Social users to participate in event-based prediction markets using digital assets. Through the feature, users will be able to convert Truth Gems, the platform’s engagement reward points, into Cronos (CRO) tokens, Crypto.com’s native currency.

These tokens can then be used to place contracts on various outcomes, including political events, inflation trends, interest rate changes, and even entertainment or sports results. The prediction contracts will be offered through Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), a federally registered exchange and clearinghouse, ensuring compliance with U.S. regulations.

Initially, the feature will be available in beta for U.S. users before expanding internationally once regulatory clearance is achieved. Users will interact through the Truth Social interface, viewing live markets, odds, and discussions in real time, blending social conversation with speculative activity.

The experience is designed to feel like a natural extension of social engagement. A user might comment on an election post and immediately place a small wager on its outcome, combining public sentiment with actionable financial participation.

 

Why This Partnership Matters

Bringing Prediction Markets to the Mainstream

Prediction markets have long been viewed as one of crypto’s most promising but underdeveloped sectors. They allow users to trade based on the likelihood of future events, creating markets that aggregate crowd intelligence. By integrating this directly into Truth Social, TMTG aims to democratize financial forecasting for millions of users already engaged in political and cultural conversation.

Traditional platforms like Polymarket or Augur have experimented with similar systems, but adoption has been limited due to regulatory complexity and lack of mainstream exposure. By embedding such markets into a recognizable brand with a large user base, Truth Predict could deliver the first true mass-market experiment in decentralized prediction finance.

Deepening Crypto’s Role in Consumer Platforms

For Crypto.com, the partnership reinforces a strategic goal: embedding crypto utilities into real-world ecosystems. Instead of simply offering exchange-based products, the company is bringing blockchain settlement, token liquidity, and on-chain derivatives directly to non-crypto audiences.

The inclusion of CRO as the trading currency adds additional utility to Crypto.com’s ecosystem. If Truth Predict attracts strong participation, demand for CRO could rise, supporting both token liquidity and user adoption. It also showcases how digital assets can underpin financial activity that feels social and interactive, rather than confined to traditional trading platforms.

Expanding TMTG Beyond Social Media

For Trump Media, the move signals a pivot from being just a social network to becoming a broader financial and technology ecosystem. Truth Predict effectively transforms Truth Social from a content platform into a hybrid of social media and fintech — one that monetizes engagement through gamified market participation.

By introducing event trading, TMTG gains new revenue streams, user engagement opportunities, and access to a crypto-savvy audience. This evolution mirrors the industry trend toward “social finance,” or SoFi, where communities and markets blend.

 

Regulatory and Market Implications

The move will inevitably attract scrutiny from U.S. regulators. Prediction markets that allow users to speculate on real-world outcomes often fall into gray areas between gaming, commodities, and financial derivatives.

TMTG and Crypto.com are attempting to navigate this by operating through CDNA, which is already registered to handle derivatives and event contracts under federal oversight. This structure gives the project a more solid legal foundation compared to previous decentralized prediction efforts.

Still, much depends on how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) interprets event-based trading products. Similar platforms have previously been subject to restrictions or enforcement when their contracts were deemed speculative or unregistered. TMTG’s alignment with a compliant exchange could minimize risk, but regulatory developments will play a major role in the rollout’s success.

From a policy perspective, Truth Predict’s structure could push forward the broader debate over how event markets should be classified. If it gains traction, it may encourage regulators to update frameworks around decentralized finance and event trading.

 

Broader Context: Crypto Meets Politics and Pop Culture

The decision to build prediction markets into Truth Social is symbolic of crypto’s expanding role in digital culture. It represents the convergence of three powerful forces — media, politics, and blockchain finance.

Truth Social has a highly engaged user base that frequently discusses political outcomes and global events. Embedding a prediction layer gives that activity a financial dimension, effectively turning social opinion into a live marketplace. It’s an experiment in monetizing collective sentiment and could become one of the most direct integrations of finance and social media ever attempted.

The model also aligns with broader industry trends. Across the crypto landscape, there is growing interest in tokenized participation — users not just talking about events but having economic exposure to them. Platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Zeitgeist have all explored similar concepts, but none have had access to a mainstream social media audience of this scale.

If successful, Truth Predict could redefine engagement economics for social platforms. Instead of relying solely on advertising, platforms could generate revenue through transaction fees, trading volume, and token flows, while giving users financial skin in the game.

 

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, Truth Predict faces several challenges:

1. Regulatory uncertainty: The line between a prediction market and gambling remains blurry. Even with CDNA’s oversight, future rulings could restrict certain types of event contracts.

2. Liquidity and adoption: Prediction markets need active traders and diverse participation to be meaningful. Without sustained user interest, markets may suffer from thin liquidity and poor price discovery.

3. Technical reliability: Integrating real-time trading systems into a social media app at scale poses technical risks. Network latency, pricing feeds, and wallet integration all need to function seamlessly.

4. Reputation and optics: Because of Truth Social’s political association, there is a risk that regulators or critics may perceive the initiative as controversial or politicized, particularly during election cycles.

 

Potential Market Impact

If Truth Predict gains traction, it could have ripple effects across both the crypto and social media sectors. A successful launch would validate the concept of embedded DeFi, where users interact with financial tools inside non-financial platforms.

It could also accelerate the adoption of CRO and strengthen Crypto.com’s position as a regulatory-compliant partner for large consumer applications. For Trump Media, success could help transform Truth Social from a niche political network into a broader fintech and crypto ecosystem, expanding its commercial relevance.

In a broader sense, this move represents a new phase in crypto’s evolution — not just as an investment asset but as infrastructure for participatory, community-driven finance. By combining social expression with speculative markets, Truth Predict might demonstrate how blockchain can power new types of engagement and monetization.

 

Final Take

Trump Media’s partnership with Crypto.com marks a significant milestone in the intersection of social media and blockchain finance. Truth Predict has the potential to turn conversations into markets, engagement into economic participation, and opinions into actionable forecasts.

If the system functions as planned and regulatory barriers are managed, it could pioneer a new model for Web3 social platforms — one where users not only share their views but also stake value on their predictions.

 

For both TMTG and Crypto.com, this collaboration represents more than a product launch. It is an experiment in blending communication, finance, and crypto into a single, dynamic ecosystem. Success could redefine how the next generation of social platforms operate and how blockchain becomes part of everyday digital life.

 

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Polymarket Confirms Major Native Token Launch and Airdrop Plans

Prediction market platform Polymarket has officially revealed plans to launch a native token, tentatively referenced by the ticker “POLY,” and to conduct an airdrop targeting its active user base. This is the latest in a string of strategic moves that signal Polymarket is entering a new phase of growth and community-driven value creation.

In a recent communication, Chief Marketing Officer of Polymarket confirmed the intention to distribute POLY tokens as part of the platform’s next chapter. Although precise details such as the snapshot date or token economics have not yet been published, the announcement has already sparked significant interest and speculation across the crypto ecosystem.

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What We Know So Far

Token Introduction

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan sparked the token discussion earlier when he posted the string “$BTC $ETH $BNB $SOL $POLY” on X, placing POLY alongside well-established crypto assets. This implied a serious ambition for the token to operate at scale. Bitcoinist.com+1

Airdrop Framework

Although the project has not yet revealed final criteria, airdrop hunters and active users are already positioning themselves. Some analyst commentary suggests that metrics under consideration could include trading volume, market participation, profits, liquidity provision and platform loyalty. CoinMarketCap+1

Institutional Momentum

Polymarket recently secured a strategic investment of up to $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. This backing strengthens the token narrative and supports institutional credibility for the upcoming POLY rollout. Traders Union

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Why This Development Matters

1. Platform Maturation

Polymarket moving to a native token model signals evolution from a purely transactional prediction-market platform into a deeper ecosystem with governance and economic incentives. A token could introduce staking, rewards, user governance and richer incentive structures.

2. Airdrop Culture Reset

The planned POLY airdrop has the potential to be one of the largest in crypto history given Polymarket’s scale and liquidity. That shifts the playing field for early-stage users and raises the bar for how platforms reward participation and loyalty. CoinSpot

3. Prediction Markets in the Spotlight

By aligning token issuance with prediction markets, Polymarket elevates an under-explored segment of crypto. With institutional investments and tokenization in view, prediction markets may gain broader utility and recognition in finance.

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Key Metrics and Signals to Watch

• Snapshot Date Announcement: When Polymarket defines the cut-off for eligibility.

• Token Distribution Rules: Details on allocation size, tiering, user eligibility, lock-up periods.

• Trading and Liquidity Dynamics: How volumes behave in the lead-up and post-launch.

• Institutional Engagement: How ICE and other backers integrate token use cases or platform expansion.

• Regulatory Alignment: How Polymarket addresses compliance, Sybil-resistance and user fairness.

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Final Thoughts

Polymarket’s confirmation of a native token and airdrop marks a pivotal moment not just for its own roadmap but for the broader Web3 ecosystem. The shift reflects growing sophistication in how platforms incentivize users, reward engagement and build sustainable networks.

For participants, this development offers a chance to engage early and potentially earn meaningful value. For observers and institutions, it signals that prediction markets are stepping into the mainstream. And for the industry at large, it reinforces that tokenization remains a powerful lever for growth—and that well-executed airdrops can serve as catalysts rather than gimmicks.

 

Polymarket’s next steps—snapshot criteria, token economics and launch timing—will be closely watched. If executed thoughtfully, POLY could become a model for how crypto projects reward users, scale platforms and bridge to institutional finance.

 

 

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Polymarket’s Valuation Rockets Toward $15B as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

 

Polymarket is at the center of one of the boldest funding rounds in the crypto sector this year. The blockchain-based prediction-market platform is currently in talks to secure new investment at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion, representing a more than ten-fold increase from just a few months ago.
This dramatic surge reflects growing institutional interest in event-driven markets, tokenization opportunities, and blockchain infrastructure play.

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From Unicorn to Decacorn in Record Time

Earlier in 2025, Polymarket was valued at around $1 billion after raising approximately $200 million, led by prominent backers such as Founders Fund.
Since then, the platform has seen major institutional movement. One report noted that the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange is planning up to a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, with the deal potentially valuing the startup at $8 billion or more. Other industry coverage suggests a valuation of up to $15 billion.
This rapid escalation places Polymarket in the same conversation as some of the most valuable fintech and blockchain firms globally.

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Why Investors Are Paying Attention

Event-Driven Markets With Scale

Polymarket enables users to trade outcomes of global events such as elections, sports, and economic indicators using crypto. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, the platform saw trading volumes in the billions and accuracy rates over 90 percent, underscoring the demand for prediction markets beyond spot trading.
These markets offer a new frontier: opinion, forecasting and real-time data as investable products.

Partnership With Financial Giants

The involvement of major financial institutions signals a shift in how prediction markets are viewed. The potential tie-up with the NYSE owner, for instance, opens doors for regulated access, expanded usage of event-driven data and tokenization of outcomes.
Such moves are likely to bring the prediction-market model into the mainstream, connecting DeFi-style logic with established capital-markets infrastructure.

A Path to U.S. Re-Entry

Polymarket previously faced regulatory headwinds in the U.S. but is now gearing up for fresh engagement via acquisitions and licensing. The platform’s acquisition of a U.S. derivatives exchange clearinghouse paves the way for deeper access into traditional finance.
With major funding momentum and institutional backing, Polymarket is positioning itself for a major leap into regulated jurisdictions.

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What This Means for the Crypto Ecosystem

• New asset class potential: Prediction markets could become a new corner of crypto that goes beyond DeFi and NFTs, offering structured instruments around real-world outcomes.

• Institutional entry point: With higher valuations and serious investors, crypto natives like Polymarket are becoming investible business models rather than speculative projects.

• Network effect expansion: As Polymarket grows, its data feeds, user base and market infrastructure could become foundational for tokenized event contracts, real-world asset forecasts and on-chain settlement systems.

• Competitive acceleration: Rival platforms such as Kalshi are also increasing funding and across-the-board competition is rising, which should drive faster innovation in the space.

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Key Metrics to Keep an Eye On

• Daily and weekly trading volume on Polymarket’s platform, particularly around major global events.

• The final size and valuation of the new funding round, and the identity of lead investors.

• Growth of institutional partnerships and licensing deals, especially in regulated markets.

• The platform’s progress towards U.S. market access and regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions.

• Launch of new tokenized market products or settlements that move prediction markets closer to mainstream usage.

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Final Thoughts

 

Polymarket’s journey from a modest startup to a multibillion-dollar prediction-market powerhouse is a strong signal for crypto’s next phase. Its ability to attract serious capital, partner with financial institutions and offer an entirely new market architecture positions it as a top contender in the blockchain infrastructure space.
For investors, developers and crypto enthusiasts, Polymarket’s trajectory is worth watching. The era of crypto derivatives, event trading and tokenized outcome markets may be arriving sooner than many expected—and Polymarket appears to be leading that charge.