I came into Bitcoin in mid-2017. Not early, not late, but early enough to catch the euphoria and late enough to feel the consequences. I watched that cycle go vertical, then watched it unwind in slow motion through 2018. I stayed through the 2020–2022 cycle, including the November 2021 peak and the long grind down that followed.

 

So when Bitcoin slipped back toward $70,000 this week, the feeling wasn’t panic..well, maybe some panic. But there certainly was some recognition. The same quiet tension I’ve felt before, when the market shifts from confidence to defense and nobody is quite ready to admit it.

 

This move looks familiar on the surface. Risk assets are under pressure, equities are shaky, and Bitcoin is once again trading like the most volatile expression of risk in the room. But the environment around it feels very different than it did the last two times I lived through this.

 

 

Why $70,000 Matters More Than Most Want To Admit

 

For anyone who lived through 2021, $70K isn’t just a number. November of 2021 marked the prior cycle’s peak near $69,000. For years, that level symbolized excess. More recently, trading above it felt like proof that the market had finally moved on.

 

Once Bitcoin slipped back into that zone, the mood shifted fast. Selling stopped being about opinions and started being about mechanics. Stops were hit. Leverage came out. Liquidations took over. That transition is something I’ve learned to respect. When the market turns mechanical, it usually overshoots.That is obvious on both sides, euphoria and near depression.

 

I saw the same thing in early 2018 and again in 2022. Different triggers, same behavior.

 

 

BTC Still Trades Like A Risk Asset

 

As much as I want Bitcoin to be treated differently, moments like this remind me that it still trades like a high beta risk asset when macro pressure shows up.

 

Equities, especially tech, have been weak. Volatility is up. Liquidity feels tighter. In that environment, Bitcoin rarely resists. It amplifies. Crypto trades 24/7, it’s easy to exit quickly, and it’s deeply intertwined with leverage. When investors want to reduce risk immediately, Bitcoin is often first in line.

 

Once liquidations start cascading, fundamentals stop mattering in the short term. Exchanges sell into weakness, bids step away, and price pushes through levels that felt solid just days earlier.

 

ETF flows add a new dynamic I didn’t have to think about in 2018 or even 2021. Institutional money can now enter and exit Bitcoin daily. That can support price over time, but during drawdowns it can also accelerate downside when outflows cluster.

 

 

What Past Cycles Taught Us

 

Living through the 2017 peak and the 2018 bear market changed how I think about Bitcoin permanently. Support can fail. Narratives can break. Time can do more damage than price. And something always happens that you least expect.

 

The 2020–2022 cycle reinforced that lesson. After peaking in November 2021, Bitcoin fell roughly 75 percent into the November 2022 lows. That wasn’t just a crash, it was a year of slow erosion that wore people down.

 

Those experiences make it hard for me to assume this cycle can’t get uglier. Bitcoin has always been good at humbling people who think they’ve seen it all.

 

At the same time, I can’t ignore what’s different now.

 

 

Will This Cycle Be Different?

 

In 2017 and 2021, regulation was mostly noise. Institutions were cautious or absent. Spot ETFs didn’t exist. Bitcoin lived largely outside traditional markets

 

That’s no longer true.

 

Efforts like the Clarity Act and broader moves to define digital commodities give Bitcoin something it’s never really had during a downturn, a clearer legal and regulatory framework. That matters more when prices are falling than when they’re rising.

 

Institutions also behave differently than retail traders. They don’t buy because of excitement or belief. They buy because mandates allow them to. That can create steadier demand when prices fall far enough.

 

But they also sell without emotion. When risk models say reduce exposure, they reduce it. No attachment, no narrative. That means drawdowns can still be sharp, but they may resolve differently than in prior cycles.

 

This is the tension I’m trying to navigate in this cycle. Regulation and institutional access could limit the worst outcomes we’ve seen before. They could also change the character of both rallies and declines in ways we haven’t fully experienced yet.

 

 

Is This The Bottom?

 

Honestly, It feels rough out there and I know I wish this was the bottom. Maybe we see some relief before more pain? Or, in true crypto fashion, we rip the band-aid off and go even further down today, but I don’t think it’s safe to assume it’s the bottom of this cycle.

 

Liquidations have already done some eal damage. Sentiment has flipped quickly. Price is sitting near a level that matters historically and psychologically. If ETF flows stabilize, forced selling fades, and equities stop sliding, a bottoming process could start soon.

 

But I’ve been around long enough to know that real bottoms don’t feel relieving. They feel boring. They form through time, failed breakdowns, and long stretches where nothing seems to happen. This is happening fast so...the chop is still going to come. We may some moves up soon, and even more quick crashes, but the long boring bottom of the market has yet to reveal its face.

 

If conditions continue to deteriorate, Bitcoin will grind lower. Slow declines have always been more dangerous than fast crashes. They exhaust conviction. People just get complacent and leave.

 

 

 

What I’m Watching

 

Rather than trying to call the exact low, I’m focused on a few things.

 

Whether ETF flows stabilize over weeks, not days
Whether liquidation events shrink instead of cascade
Whether equities, especially tech, stop dragging crypto lower
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim broken levels and hold them, not just tag them

 

And time, true reversals don't happen fast. Those things just take time. That is true when the market is up and when the market is down.

 

I came into Bitcoin in 2017 thinking it was all about price. Staying through multiple cycles taught me it’s really about structure, psychology, and time.

 

This drop toward $70K feels familiar for a reason. What’s different is the environment around it. Institutions are here. Regulation is evolving. The market is more connected to traditional finance than it’s ever been.

 

I don’t know if that makes the outcome better or just different. What I do know is, that this fourth chapter I’m living through doesn’t feel like a clean repeat of the last one, and that alone is worth paying attention to. I also don't know if I made you feel better about this whole thing or not. Or maybe, I was just trying to make myself feel better in the end.

Ethereum ETFs Surge Past Bitcoin in Q3, Signaling Institutional Shift

Ethereum-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted record inflows in recent periods, significantly outpacing their Bitcoin counterparts. Data show that institutional capital is increasingly directed toward Ethereum, reflecting changing preferences in crypto investment.

Several key facts underscore this shift. In a recent six-day span, U.S. spot Ether ETFs pulled in nearly $2.4 billion, while spot Bitcoin ETFs collected around $827 million during the same period. Another report placed single-day net inflows for Ethereum funds at more than $500 million, almost eight times the volume seen for Bitcoin ETFs on that day. One record-setting inflow figure for Ethereum ETFs topped $1 billion in a single session.

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What’s Driving the Outperformance

Utility, Staking and Ecosystem Depth

Ethereum offers broad functionality beyond store of value. Its smart contract capacity, decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure, and staking yields make it appealing for investors seeking growth and utility. A noted analysis found that nearly 95 % of all ETH held by public companies was acquired during Q3, suggesting widespread corporate accumulation.

Access via Regulated Products

Spot Ethereum ETFs provide a familiar, regulated way for large investors to gain exposure, bypassing direct token custody. As major asset managers launch and expand ETH funds, access barriers are lowering and institutional adoption is accelerating.

Portfolio Rebalancing and “Rotation”

The data suggest a “rotation” of capital from Bitcoin-centric allocations toward Ethereum. Where Bitcoin was once viewed as the primary crypto investment vehicle, growing confidence in Ethereum’s protocol growth and ecosystem effects is shifting institutional flows.

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Implications for Investors and the Crypto Market

• Broader exposure: More inflows into ETH-based ETFs can enhance liquidity and institutional participation, potentially reducing the premium/discount spreads and increasing volume.

• Valuation upside: With increasing institutional allocation, Ethereum’s price may begin reflecting these broader flows and utility metrics rather than just market sentiment.

• A changing narrative: For many years Bitcoin captured the bulk of crypto investment interest. Now Ethereum is being seen as a viable alternative or complement, especially for those focused on network utility and application-driven growth.

• Diversified portfolios: Investors seeking exposure to crypto may increasingly include Ethereum-linked ETFs in their portfolios alongside or instead of Bitcoin-based products.

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Key Metrics to Monitor Moving Forward

• Weekly and monthly net inflows for ETH and BTC ETFs, to see whether this trend continues or reverses.

• Entity-level holdings and corporate treasury purchases of ETH, since these signal long-term conviction.

• On-chain signals such as staking activity, protocol usage, and token supply changes within Ethereum.

• Regulatory developments affecting ETF approvals for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as these will influence the availability and attractiveness of investment products.

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Final Thoughts

The recent performance of Ethereum ETFs marks a pivotal development in crypto investment. Ethereum is not just riding the blockchain boom—it is becoming a primary vehicle for institutional entry. While Bitcoin remains a foundational asset, Ethereum’s appeal is increasing due to its growth potential, application ecosystem, and institutional-ready exposure.

 

Investors and analysts should now ask not only whether crypto is ready for mainstream capital, but which crypto assets will receive that capital. Right now, Ethereum appears poised to lead.

Polymarket’s Valuation Rockets Toward $15B as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

 

Polymarket is at the center of one of the boldest funding rounds in the crypto sector this year. The blockchain-based prediction-market platform is currently in talks to secure new investment at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion, representing a more than ten-fold increase from just a few months ago.
This dramatic surge reflects growing institutional interest in event-driven markets, tokenization opportunities, and blockchain infrastructure play.

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From Unicorn to Decacorn in Record Time

Earlier in 2025, Polymarket was valued at around $1 billion after raising approximately $200 million, led by prominent backers such as Founders Fund.
Since then, the platform has seen major institutional movement. One report noted that the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange is planning up to a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, with the deal potentially valuing the startup at $8 billion or more. Other industry coverage suggests a valuation of up to $15 billion.
This rapid escalation places Polymarket in the same conversation as some of the most valuable fintech and blockchain firms globally.

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Why Investors Are Paying Attention

Event-Driven Markets With Scale

Polymarket enables users to trade outcomes of global events such as elections, sports, and economic indicators using crypto. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, the platform saw trading volumes in the billions and accuracy rates over 90 percent, underscoring the demand for prediction markets beyond spot trading.
These markets offer a new frontier: opinion, forecasting and real-time data as investable products.

Partnership With Financial Giants

The involvement of major financial institutions signals a shift in how prediction markets are viewed. The potential tie-up with the NYSE owner, for instance, opens doors for regulated access, expanded usage of event-driven data and tokenization of outcomes.
Such moves are likely to bring the prediction-market model into the mainstream, connecting DeFi-style logic with established capital-markets infrastructure.

A Path to U.S. Re-Entry

Polymarket previously faced regulatory headwinds in the U.S. but is now gearing up for fresh engagement via acquisitions and licensing. The platform’s acquisition of a U.S. derivatives exchange clearinghouse paves the way for deeper access into traditional finance.
With major funding momentum and institutional backing, Polymarket is positioning itself for a major leap into regulated jurisdictions.

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What This Means for the Crypto Ecosystem

• New asset class potential: Prediction markets could become a new corner of crypto that goes beyond DeFi and NFTs, offering structured instruments around real-world outcomes.

• Institutional entry point: With higher valuations and serious investors, crypto natives like Polymarket are becoming investible business models rather than speculative projects.

• Network effect expansion: As Polymarket grows, its data feeds, user base and market infrastructure could become foundational for tokenized event contracts, real-world asset forecasts and on-chain settlement systems.

• Competitive acceleration: Rival platforms such as Kalshi are also increasing funding and across-the-board competition is rising, which should drive faster innovation in the space.

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Key Metrics to Keep an Eye On

• Daily and weekly trading volume on Polymarket’s platform, particularly around major global events.

• The final size and valuation of the new funding round, and the identity of lead investors.

• Growth of institutional partnerships and licensing deals, especially in regulated markets.

• The platform’s progress towards U.S. market access and regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions.

• Launch of new tokenized market products or settlements that move prediction markets closer to mainstream usage.

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Final Thoughts

 

Polymarket’s journey from a modest startup to a multibillion-dollar prediction-market powerhouse is a strong signal for crypto’s next phase. Its ability to attract serious capital, partner with financial institutions and offer an entirely new market architecture positions it as a top contender in the blockchain infrastructure space.
For investors, developers and crypto enthusiasts, Polymarket’s trajectory is worth watching. The era of crypto derivatives, event trading and tokenized outcome markets may be arriving sooner than many expected—and Polymarket appears to be leading that charge.

Hong Kong Approves Solana Spot ETF, Beating U.S. to the Milestone

 

Hong Kong’s financial regulator has given the go-ahead to the region’s first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) that directly holds Solana (SOL) tokens. This approval puts Hong Kong ahead of the U.S. in offering a spot Solana ETF and signals a major shift in crypto investment products in Asia.

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Key Details of the Approval

The ETF is being launched by ChinaAMC (Hong Kong) (China Asset Management’s Hong Kong arm) and is expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) around October 27, 2025. Each unit of the fund will consist of 100 shares and investors can enter with a minimum investment near US$100 (or the equivalent in HKD). The fund will trade in HKD, USD and RMB. It carries a total expense ratio of approximately 1.99 % per annum.

With this product, Solana becomes the third major crypto token — after Bitcoin and Ethereum — to obtain a regulated spot-ETF listing in Hong Kong.

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Why This Matters

Regulatory Leadership & Timing

By approving this Solana spot product before a U.S. market listing, Hong Kong reinforces its ambition to be a leading global digital-asset hub. The approval comes in the context of Hong Kong already having launched spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and opening spot crypto trading for retail investors on licensed platforms.

Institutional Access to a Leading Blockchain

Solana stands out as a high-performance blockchain platform known for speed and scalability. The launch of a regulated fund tied to SOL gives institutional and retail investors a direct, regulated route into the ecosystem without holding tokens themselves. That improves accessibility and reduces custody risk.

Potential Market Impact

Analysts believe this listing could enhance liquidity and visibility for SOL. Some price-targets for SOL are being raised in light of improved capital-markets access. That said, some banks and analysts caution that the initial inflows may be modest compared with Bitcoin or Ethereum ETF products.

Pressure on U.S. Regulators

The move underscores a growing gap between Asia and the U.S. in crypto product innovation. While multiple firms in the U.S. have filed for spot Solana ETFs, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet approved one, according to regulatory filings.

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What to Watch Going Forward

• Listing performance: How the Solana ETF trades once it starts on HKEX, including premium/discount behaviour, liquidity and volume.

• Inflow trends: Whether institutional capital engages meaningfully, and whether retail investors drive sustained demand.

• Competitive launches: Spot Solana ETF applications in the U.S. and Europe may gain renewed momentum now that Hong Kong has led the way.

• Ecosystem effects: Whether the listing accelerates Solana-based product launches (staking, DeFi, tokenization) or encourages institutional exposure to Solana infrastructure.

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Final Thoughts

The approval of a spot Solana ETF in Hong Kong marks a landmark moment for crypto investment. For Solana, this legitimises the network’s role in the institutional-grade financial toolkit. For Hong Kong, it signals a clear intention to lead on digital-asset innovation in Asia.

 

While the real test will lie in how the market responds and how large institutional commitments become, the milestone itself sends a ripple across global crypto and capital markets. Solana’s new listing path suggests that the token is stepping firmly into mainstream finance.