I came into Bitcoin in mid-2017. Not early, not late, but early enough to catch the euphoria and late enough to feel the consequences. I watched that cycle go vertical, then watched it unwind in slow motion through 2018. I stayed through the 2020–2022 cycle, including the November 2021 peak and the long grind down that followed.

 

So when Bitcoin slipped back toward $70,000 this week, the feeling wasn’t panic..well, maybe some panic. But there certainly was some recognition. The same quiet tension I’ve felt before, when the market shifts from confidence to defense and nobody is quite ready to admit it.

 

This move looks familiar on the surface. Risk assets are under pressure, equities are shaky, and Bitcoin is once again trading like the most volatile expression of risk in the room. But the environment around it feels very different than it did the last two times I lived through this.

 

 

Why $70,000 Matters More Than Most Want To Admit

 

For anyone who lived through 2021, $70K isn’t just a number. November of 2021 marked the prior cycle’s peak near $69,000. For years, that level symbolized excess. More recently, trading above it felt like proof that the market had finally moved on.

 

Once Bitcoin slipped back into that zone, the mood shifted fast. Selling stopped being about opinions and started being about mechanics. Stops were hit. Leverage came out. Liquidations took over. That transition is something I’ve learned to respect. When the market turns mechanical, it usually overshoots.That is obvious on both sides, euphoria and near depression.

 

I saw the same thing in early 2018 and again in 2022. Different triggers, same behavior.

 

 

BTC Still Trades Like A Risk Asset

 

As much as I want Bitcoin to be treated differently, moments like this remind me that it still trades like a high beta risk asset when macro pressure shows up.

 

Equities, especially tech, have been weak. Volatility is up. Liquidity feels tighter. In that environment, Bitcoin rarely resists. It amplifies. Crypto trades 24/7, it’s easy to exit quickly, and it’s deeply intertwined with leverage. When investors want to reduce risk immediately, Bitcoin is often first in line.

 

Once liquidations start cascading, fundamentals stop mattering in the short term. Exchanges sell into weakness, bids step away, and price pushes through levels that felt solid just days earlier.

 

ETF flows add a new dynamic I didn’t have to think about in 2018 or even 2021. Institutional money can now enter and exit Bitcoin daily. That can support price over time, but during drawdowns it can also accelerate downside when outflows cluster.

 

 

What Past Cycles Taught Us

 

Living through the 2017 peak and the 2018 bear market changed how I think about Bitcoin permanently. Support can fail. Narratives can break. Time can do more damage than price. And something always happens that you least expect.

 

The 2020–2022 cycle reinforced that lesson. After peaking in November 2021, Bitcoin fell roughly 75 percent into the November 2022 lows. That wasn’t just a crash, it was a year of slow erosion that wore people down.

 

Those experiences make it hard for me to assume this cycle can’t get uglier. Bitcoin has always been good at humbling people who think they’ve seen it all.

 

At the same time, I can’t ignore what’s different now.

 

 

Will This Cycle Be Different?

 

In 2017 and 2021, regulation was mostly noise. Institutions were cautious or absent. Spot ETFs didn’t exist. Bitcoin lived largely outside traditional markets

 

That’s no longer true.

 

Efforts like the Clarity Act and broader moves to define digital commodities give Bitcoin something it’s never really had during a downturn, a clearer legal and regulatory framework. That matters more when prices are falling than when they’re rising.

 

Institutions also behave differently than retail traders. They don’t buy because of excitement or belief. They buy because mandates allow them to. That can create steadier demand when prices fall far enough.

 

But they also sell without emotion. When risk models say reduce exposure, they reduce it. No attachment, no narrative. That means drawdowns can still be sharp, but they may resolve differently than in prior cycles.

 

This is the tension I’m trying to navigate in this cycle. Regulation and institutional access could limit the worst outcomes we’ve seen before. They could also change the character of both rallies and declines in ways we haven’t fully experienced yet.

 

 

Is This The Bottom?

 

Honestly, It feels rough out there and I know I wish this was the bottom. Maybe we see some relief before more pain? Or, in true crypto fashion, we rip the band-aid off and go even further down today, but I don’t think it’s safe to assume it’s the bottom of this cycle.

 

Liquidations have already done some eal damage. Sentiment has flipped quickly. Price is sitting near a level that matters historically and psychologically. If ETF flows stabilize, forced selling fades, and equities stop sliding, a bottoming process could start soon.

 

But I’ve been around long enough to know that real bottoms don’t feel relieving. They feel boring. They form through time, failed breakdowns, and long stretches where nothing seems to happen. This is happening fast so...the chop is still going to come. We may some moves up soon, and even more quick crashes, but the long boring bottom of the market has yet to reveal its face.

 

If conditions continue to deteriorate, Bitcoin will grind lower. Slow declines have always been more dangerous than fast crashes. They exhaust conviction. People just get complacent and leave.

 

 

 

What I’m Watching

 

Rather than trying to call the exact low, I’m focused on a few things.

 

Whether ETF flows stabilize over weeks, not days
Whether liquidation events shrink instead of cascade
Whether equities, especially tech, stop dragging crypto lower
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim broken levels and hold them, not just tag them

 

And time, true reversals don't happen fast. Those things just take time. That is true when the market is up and when the market is down.

 

I came into Bitcoin in 2017 thinking it was all about price. Staying through multiple cycles taught me it’s really about structure, psychology, and time.

 

This drop toward $70K feels familiar for a reason. What’s different is the environment around it. Institutions are here. Regulation is evolving. The market is more connected to traditional finance than it’s ever been.

 

I don’t know if that makes the outcome better or just different. What I do know is, that this fourth chapter I’m living through doesn’t feel like a clean repeat of the last one, and that alone is worth paying attention to. I also don't know if I made you feel better about this whole thing or not. Or maybe, I was just trying to make myself feel better in the end.

 

As a relatively new reporter in the financial space here in Cincinnati, I’m still learning the ropes of these massive markets every day. I’ve pored over charts, read analyst reports, and talked to people who live and breathe this work. The facts right now are clear: gold is on fire, while Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” is lagging or even pulling back. Gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce amid global tensions and renewed safe-haven buying, while Bitcoin is hovering around $87,000 to $88,000 after dipping from recent highs near $98,000. It is tempting to think gold has won this round outright. But when I look deeper at the data and think about where we are headed, I cannot shake the feeling that Bitcoin is still the head of the future.

 

Let me break down the current picture using real data and major players, then explain why, as someone still green in this industry, I am leaning toward the digital side over the long term.

 

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Gold’s Dominance in Early 2026

Gold’s dominance in early 2026 has been unmistakable. As of January 26, 2026, spot gold is trading roughly between $5,067 and $5,100 per ounce, up about 1.6 percent on the day and nearly 85 percent from a year ago. It recently pushed past $5,100 as investors rushed into safe assets driven by geopolitical flashpoints, a weaker U.S. dollar, and continued central bank accumulation. Analysts at firms such as J.P. Morgan are projecting average prices near $5,055 by the fourth quarter of 2026, with more aggressive scenarios reaching $5,400 or even $6,000 if uncertainty remains elevated.

 

This surge is being driven by familiar forces. Demand for safe havens has intensified amid global risks, including tensions involving Venezuela, Iran, and broader macroeconomic stress. Central banks continue to purchase gold at a strong pace, and expectations for lower interest rates are making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive relative to bonds and cash.

 

Major mining companies are capitalizing on these conditions. Newmont Corp., the world’s largest gold producer, is benefiting from its diversified operations and has seen its shares rise alongside record prices. Barrick Gold continues to deliver strong output from its core assets, while Agnico Eagle is expanding in politically stable jurisdictions. The emphasis these companies place on operational efficiency and ESG-conscious production has helped attract institutional capital, reinforcing gold’s reputation as a reliable hedge in uncertain times.

 

Bitcoin’s Rough Patch: Stagnation Amid the Rally

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is struggling to keep pace. It is trading in the $87,000 to $88,000 range, down from highs near $98,000 earlier this month and well below its 2025 peak. Year-to-date performance has been flat to negative at times, and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to roughly 17 to 18, meaning one Bitcoin now buys significantly fewer ounces of gold than it did previously. Recent outflows from crypto-focused ETFs have added pressure, and Bitcoin has failed to capture the same fear-driven momentum that is powering gold’s rally.

 

Several factors are weighing on sentiment. Regulatory uncertainty and ongoing energy concerns remain unresolved, while broader macro resets are pushing investors toward traditional safe havens first. At the same time, profit-taking by early Bitcoin holders has contributed to selling pressure during rallies.

 

On the mining side, companies such as Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms are facing margin pressure from higher energy costs and the effects of the most recent halving. Some firms, including CleanSpark, are attempting to adapt by shifting portions of their operations toward AI-related infrastructure. Institutional backing through products like BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs has helped establish a price floor, but so far it has not been enough to spark a sustained breakout.

 

Ty’s Take: Gold Feels Safe Now, But Bitcoin Is the Future I’m Betting On

I will be upfront: I am new to covering this beat, and the data clearly shows that gold has been the winner so far in 2026. Its thousands of years of history as a store of value, its lower volatility, and its tangible demand during periods of turmoil make it feel especially solid when headlines are filled with uncertainty. From my desk in Cincinnati, where many investors favor steady and familiar assets, gold’s rally makes complete sense. Mining stocks such as Newmont and Barrick look like attractive options for those seeking exposure without extreme swings.

 

But here is where my gut...and what I have learned through deeper research, come into play. Bitcoin is not failing; it is moving through a cyclical pullback while gold does what it has always done best during risk-off environments. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, expanding adoption, and potential as borderless, programmable money position it as an evolution in how value is stored and transferred. Gold has history on its side, but Bitcoin brings innovation, including growing institutional participation, the possibility of clearer regulation under current leadership, and continued improvements in efficiency and infrastructure. Forecasts for Bitcoin range from relatively conservative targets of $120,000 to $170,000 by year end, with much higher outcomes possible if momentum returns.

 

As someone still learning this industry, I see gold winning the short-term fear trade, while Bitcoin leads the longer-term shift toward digital assets. For investors building wealth over the next decade, allocating to both can make sense: gold for near-term stability through miners or ETFs, and a heavier tilt toward Bitcoin or its broader ecosystem for long-term growth. The facts show gold shining today, but the future, in my view, remains digital.

Crypto Market Surges Ahead of the FOMC Decision and What It Means for the Market

The crypto market has seen a sharp rise in volatility and price movement, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the rally. This surge has not come out of nowhere. It is tied closely to speculation surrounding the latest Federal Open Market Committee decision. As traders positioned themselves for potential changes in U.S. monetary policy, the crypto market responded with a wave of buying, short liquidations, and renewed bullish sentiment.

The move is another clear example of how deeply connected crypto has become to broader macroeconomic conditions.

 

How FOMC Speculation Became the Spark for the Latest Crypto Rally

In the days leading up to the meeting, expectations grew that the Federal Reserve might soften its stance on interest rates. Even the possibility of a rate cut or a more dovish tone tends to shift investors toward higher risk assets. Crypto is usually among the first to react.

Lower interest rates reduce the appeal of cash and bonds, while making speculative and growth oriented assets more attractive. That dynamic has long played out in equities. Now it is becoming increasingly visible in crypto as well.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both climbed into short term highs before the decision. As prices moved up, heavily leveraged short positions began to unwind. This added fuel to the rally as forced liquidations pushed prices even higher. It was a feedback loop that often appears during major macro events and is especially common in the crypto market due to its high leverage environment.

 

 

Market Behavior Shows the Fed Still Drives Risk Appetite

Even though crypto operates independently of government control, the industry still reacts strongly to the tone and trajectory of central bank policy.

A few things are becoming clear:

• Traders treat FOMC guidance as a direct indicator of risk sentiment.

• Expectations alone can drive price action before the decision is released.

• Liquidity conditions continue to shape the strength of crypto market rebounds.

• Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly acting like macro assets rather than purely speculative ones.

As the market leaned toward a more accommodative outlook, traders began rotating capital back into large cap cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum benefited the most, but the effect spilled into altcoins as well.

Short term, this created a volatile environment. Longer term, it signals a deeper connection between crypto and global financial cycles.

 

Why Some Analysts See This as More Than a Temporary Move

While investors always react to big economic events, this moment feels different. The alignment of easing inflation, slower economic pressure, and the possibility of rate cuts creates a setup where risk assets could see more sustained inflows.

Crypto is no longer operating separately from traditional finance. If liquidity improves across the economy, that liquidity tends to find its way into high growth and high volatility markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum fit that profile perfectly.

This raises a question that many in the industry are now considering. Is this the beginning of a broader shift where crypto consistently responds to macro cycles the same way equities and bonds do?

If so, price behavior may become more predictable around central bank events than it was in the early years of the industry.

 

What Could Go Right and What Could Still Disrupt the Momentum

 

What Could Go Right

• If the Fed follows a path of easing or signals greater flexibility, crypto markets could experience a sustained wave of inflows.

• Investors may shift back toward risk, viewing Bitcoin and Ethereum as core components of a diversified macro portfolio.

• Lower interest rates increase liquidity across financial markets, which historically supports larger moves in non traditional assets.

• A clearer link between crypto and macro conditions could attract more institutional traders who specialize in macro driven strategies.

What Could Go Wrong

• If the Fed holds rates higher for longer or delivers a hawkish message, the market could see an immediate reversal.

• Liquidations can cut both ways. The same leverage that amplifies rallies can intensify declines.

• Uncertainty in global markets, geopolitical pressure, or a sudden risk off event could stall any recovery.

• Crypto may remain highly sensitive to macro shifts, reducing the independence that once drove speculative surges.

 

What This Phase Means for Investors and the Broader Market

This moment serves as a reminder that crypto does not move in isolation. Bitcoin and Ethereum now sit within the larger financial ecosystem. When central bank policy shifts, these assets feel the impact quickly. That connection is growing stronger, not weaker.

For traders, FOMC weeks will continue to be periods of heightened volatility. Positioning before and after the decision may offer opportunities, but it also increases risk.

For long term investors, understanding macro cycles is becoming just as important as understanding blockchain fundamentals.

For the market as a whole, this could signal a shift toward a more mature ecosystem. If crypto continues to move with global financial cycles, it may attract more institutional interest, more capital, and more stability over time.

 

The surge before the FOMC decision is not just another short term rally. It is a signal of where the market is heading and how interconnected crypto has become with traditional finance.

 

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You can stay up to date on all News, Events, and Marketing of Rare Network, including Rare Evo: America’s Premier Blockchain Conference, happening  July 28th-31st, 2026 at The ARIA Resort & Casino, by following our socials on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.

Why Bitwise Is Thinking Bigger About Crypto, and Why the Timing Matters

The crypto industry is moving into a new phase, and Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes the shift is much larger than the market realizes. His view is that the combination of regulatory changes, institutional interest, and the rise of on chain financial infrastructure is creating an environment that could redefine how global markets function.

What is striking is not just his optimism, but the level of detail behind it. Hougan is not talking about the next bull run or a temporary upswing. He is talking about a structural change that could reshape how assets move and how financial services are delivered.

 

A Regulatory Turn That Few Saw Coming

For years, regulation has been the main obstacle standing between crypto and traditional finance. That has started to change in a very real way. In a recent address, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins presented a plan known informally as Project Crypto. Instead of focusing primarily on enforcement, the initiative outlines a path for integrating traditional markets with public blockchains.

Hougan called this the most optimistic regulatory stance he has ever seen and said it forced him to revise not just the scale of crypto’s potential, but the timeline as well. His point is straightforward. The market has not fully absorbed what a cooperative regulatory regime could unlock. Investors have priced in caution for so long that they have not adjusted to the possibility of acceleration.

 

Three Areas Where the Biggest Winners May Emerge

Hougan identifies three categories where he sees the strongest potential.

1. Layer 1 blockchains and core crypto networks.
If financial activity continues to move on chain, the blockchains that support settlement, tokenization, stablecoins, and decentralized financial rails could see massive growth. Hougan mentions networks like Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, Avalanche, Aptos, Sui, NEAR and others. His view is that the right approach is not to pick a single winner, but to build a diversified basket of networks that are gaining real world usage.

2. Decentralized finance protocols.
With clearer regulatory treatment, DeFi could move from a niche set of applications to the backbone of a new financial system. Protocols that automate trading, lending, borrowing, derivatives, and stablecoin issuance could scale far beyond their current user base. Hougan believes that once regulatory friction drops, institutional participation could flow in rapidly.

3. Financial super apps.
This is one of the most ambitious parts of the projection. Hougan believes new platforms will combine traditional finance and crypto into a single interface. Instead of having brokerage accounts in one place, bank accounts in another, and crypto apps somewhere else, users could interact with all financial assets through one unified system. He thinks a company in this category could become the largest financial services firm in the world, potentially passing a one trillion dollar valuation.

 

Why a Ten to Twenty Times Expansion Does Not Sound Unrealistic

Hougan has consistently argued that crypto could deliver ten to twenty times growth over the next decade. His reasoning is not based on hype. It is based on the idea that crypto is entering a period where cycles driven by halving events or speculative trading matter less than structural factors. He believes the “four year cycle” narrative has lost relevance. What now matters is the maturation of the asset class and the integration of crypto with global finance.

In his view, the size of the market today reflects years of hesitation driven by legal uncertainty. Once that uncertainty lifts, capital could move faster than analysts expect. Institutions that have been watching from the sidelines may feel more comfortable allocating real budget to crypto infrastructure, tokens, or tokenized assets.

 

What Could Go Right, and What Could Still Undermine This Vision

There is no guarantee that the optimistic scenario plays out. Hougan acknowledges both sides.

What could go right:

• Regulatory clarity could remove the largest barrier to institutional adoption.

• Layer 1 networks with real usage could become the settlement layers of a digital financial system.

• Super apps could reduce friction for everyday users, pulling millions more into on chain ecosystems.

• The industry could attract capital at a scale closer to major traditional asset classes.

What could go wrong:

• Regulatory implementation may move slower than expected, or shift again under new political leadership.

• Some networks or protocols may fail to scale, or may lose out to competitors.

• Macroeconomic conditions could suppress risk assets even if fundamentals improve.

• Volatility could remain a psychological barrier for mainstream investors.

 

What This Means for Investors, Builders, and Policymakers

If Hougan is right, the industry is not just entering a new market cycle. It is entering the early stages of a long transformation in how financial markets operate. Investors who once tried to time cycles may need to rethink their approach and focus more on diversified exposure to infrastructure. Builders may find themselves working in an environment that is more supportive than anything they have experienced so far. Policymakers may influence the shape of global finance for decades based on decisions they make in the next few years.

 

It is possible that crypto still has years of volatility ahead. It is also possible that the industry is standing on the edge of the most meaningful phase of its development. Hougan’s message is that the market may be thinking too small. He believes the shift underway is not incremental. It is transformative.

 

Stay Connected

You can stay up to date on all News, Events, and Marketing of Rare Network, including Rare Evo: America’s Premier Blockchain Conference, happening  July 28th-31st, 2026 at The ARIA Resort & Casino, by following our socials on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.