I came into Bitcoin in mid-2017. Not early, not late, but early enough to catch the euphoria and late enough to feel the consequences. I watched that cycle go vertical, then watched it unwind in slow motion through 2018. I stayed through the 2020–2022 cycle, including the November 2021 peak and the long grind down that followed.

 

So when Bitcoin slipped back toward $70,000 this week, the feeling wasn’t panic..well, maybe some panic. But there certainly was some recognition. The same quiet tension I’ve felt before, when the market shifts from confidence to defense and nobody is quite ready to admit it.

 

This move looks familiar on the surface. Risk assets are under pressure, equities are shaky, and Bitcoin is once again trading like the most volatile expression of risk in the room. But the environment around it feels very different than it did the last two times I lived through this.

 

 

Why $70,000 Matters More Than Most Want To Admit

 

For anyone who lived through 2021, $70K isn’t just a number. November of 2021 marked the prior cycle’s peak near $69,000. For years, that level symbolized excess. More recently, trading above it felt like proof that the market had finally moved on.

 

Once Bitcoin slipped back into that zone, the mood shifted fast. Selling stopped being about opinions and started being about mechanics. Stops were hit. Leverage came out. Liquidations took over. That transition is something I’ve learned to respect. When the market turns mechanical, it usually overshoots.That is obvious on both sides, euphoria and near depression.

 

I saw the same thing in early 2018 and again in 2022. Different triggers, same behavior.

 

 

BTC Still Trades Like A Risk Asset

 

As much as I want Bitcoin to be treated differently, moments like this remind me that it still trades like a high beta risk asset when macro pressure shows up.

 

Equities, especially tech, have been weak. Volatility is up. Liquidity feels tighter. In that environment, Bitcoin rarely resists. It amplifies. Crypto trades 24/7, it’s easy to exit quickly, and it’s deeply intertwined with leverage. When investors want to reduce risk immediately, Bitcoin is often first in line.

 

Once liquidations start cascading, fundamentals stop mattering in the short term. Exchanges sell into weakness, bids step away, and price pushes through levels that felt solid just days earlier.

 

ETF flows add a new dynamic I didn’t have to think about in 2018 or even 2021. Institutional money can now enter and exit Bitcoin daily. That can support price over time, but during drawdowns it can also accelerate downside when outflows cluster.

 

 

What Past Cycles Taught Us

 

Living through the 2017 peak and the 2018 bear market changed how I think about Bitcoin permanently. Support can fail. Narratives can break. Time can do more damage than price. And something always happens that you least expect.

 

The 2020–2022 cycle reinforced that lesson. After peaking in November 2021, Bitcoin fell roughly 75 percent into the November 2022 lows. That wasn’t just a crash, it was a year of slow erosion that wore people down.

 

Those experiences make it hard for me to assume this cycle can’t get uglier. Bitcoin has always been good at humbling people who think they’ve seen it all.

 

At the same time, I can’t ignore what’s different now.

 

 

Will This Cycle Be Different?

 

In 2017 and 2021, regulation was mostly noise. Institutions were cautious or absent. Spot ETFs didn’t exist. Bitcoin lived largely outside traditional markets

 

That’s no longer true.

 

Efforts like the Clarity Act and broader moves to define digital commodities give Bitcoin something it’s never really had during a downturn, a clearer legal and regulatory framework. That matters more when prices are falling than when they’re rising.

 

Institutions also behave differently than retail traders. They don’t buy because of excitement or belief. They buy because mandates allow them to. That can create steadier demand when prices fall far enough.

 

But they also sell without emotion. When risk models say reduce exposure, they reduce it. No attachment, no narrative. That means drawdowns can still be sharp, but they may resolve differently than in prior cycles.

 

This is the tension I’m trying to navigate in this cycle. Regulation and institutional access could limit the worst outcomes we’ve seen before. They could also change the character of both rallies and declines in ways we haven’t fully experienced yet.

 

 

Is This The Bottom?

 

Honestly, It feels rough out there and I know I wish this was the bottom. Maybe we see some relief before more pain? Or, in true crypto fashion, we rip the band-aid off and go even further down today, but I don’t think it’s safe to assume it’s the bottom of this cycle.

 

Liquidations have already done some eal damage. Sentiment has flipped quickly. Price is sitting near a level that matters historically and psychologically. If ETF flows stabilize, forced selling fades, and equities stop sliding, a bottoming process could start soon.

 

But I’ve been around long enough to know that real bottoms don’t feel relieving. They feel boring. They form through time, failed breakdowns, and long stretches where nothing seems to happen. This is happening fast so...the chop is still going to come. We may some moves up soon, and even more quick crashes, but the long boring bottom of the market has yet to reveal its face.

 

If conditions continue to deteriorate, Bitcoin will grind lower. Slow declines have always been more dangerous than fast crashes. They exhaust conviction. People just get complacent and leave.

 

 

 

What I’m Watching

 

Rather than trying to call the exact low, I’m focused on a few things.

 

Whether ETF flows stabilize over weeks, not days
Whether liquidation events shrink instead of cascade
Whether equities, especially tech, stop dragging crypto lower
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim broken levels and hold them, not just tag them

 

And time, true reversals don't happen fast. Those things just take time. That is true when the market is up and when the market is down.

 

I came into Bitcoin in 2017 thinking it was all about price. Staying through multiple cycles taught me it’s really about structure, psychology, and time.

 

This drop toward $70K feels familiar for a reason. What’s different is the environment around it. Institutions are here. Regulation is evolving. The market is more connected to traditional finance than it’s ever been.

 

I don’t know if that makes the outcome better or just different. What I do know is, that this fourth chapter I’m living through doesn’t feel like a clean repeat of the last one, and that alone is worth paying attention to. I also don't know if I made you feel better about this whole thing or not. Or maybe, I was just trying to make myself feel better in the end.