Traditional finance giants Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities have revealed possible intentions to enter the crypto prediction market industry.

 

In a call with investors, Rick Wurster, chief executive of Charles Schwab, said that at some point the institution will likely offer its own prediction markets. According to Wurster, prediction markets were not of “tremendous interest” to Schwab, but he said the sector is one the company will take a hard look at and that it would be relatively straightforward to offer such products.

 

Image credit: CNBC

 

However, if Schwab does decide to enter the prediction markets industry, Wurster said it would steer away from bets in areas such as sports, politics and pop culture, adding that the firm aims to position itself as a partner for building long term wealth.

 

“Prediction markets that are not aligned to that are not something that we want to pursue,” Wurster said. “If you look at the stats on the success of gamblers, they are not strong, and people generally lose money.”

 

Citadel Securities also opened up about the possibility of entering prediction markets in the future. At a recent Semafor conference in Washington, DC, Jim Esposito, president of Citadel Securities, said the company is “absolutely keeping an eye on developments” in prediction markets.

 

Image credit: YouTube

 

Although Esposito said Citadel Securities is not there yet because there is not much liquidity in the prediction markets industry, he added that the market is likely to ramp up and scale, and that there is a possibility of the firm getting involved in the future.

 

However, like Wurster’s position on avoiding sports betting contracts, Esposito said Citadel would avoid offering sports event contracts, but signaled interest in other types of event-based contracts.

 

Why Are Sports Event Contracts Being Avoided?

Based on the statistics, sports event contracts are the largest category of contracts on prediction market platforms. According to a recent report, sports event contracts made up 87 percent, or $9.9 billion, of Kalshi’s March $11.39 billion trading volume. On Polymarket, sports event contracts generated over $120 million in 24-hour trading volume in March.

 

However, despite their potential, Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities have said they would not be offering these contracts. For Schwab, these contracts will be avoided as they do not align with the company's goal of positioning itself as a long-term wealth builder. According to Rick Wurster, the chief executive officer of Charles Schwab, people generally lose money from these contracts. The demand for these contracts is also low among Schwab’s clients.

 

Citadel has described these contracts as having thin liquidity. Regulatory uncertainty is also a concern, as the offering of sports event contracts by prediction market platforms is one of the reasons regulators have raised concerns about Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction market companies.

 

 

Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly in talks with investors to raise 400 million dollars. If successful, this would place the prediction market company at a valuation of 15 billion dollars, up from its current $9 billion.

 

While there is still no official confirmation from Polymarket regarding this news, the fundraising is expected to drive Polymarket’s growing influence in the expanding prediction market sector, giving it a competitive advantage over its competitors, particularly Kalshi.

 

This move comes a few weeks after Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), invested 600 million dollars into Polymarket. This followed an earlier investment of 1 billion dollars into the prediction market company a few months prior.

 

So far, Polymarket has raised over $2 billion across several fundraising rounds from venture capital firms and investors, including Intercontinental Exchange, Blockchain Capital, Polychain Capital, Dragonfly Capital, Coinbase Ventures, 1789 Capital, Ethereum co founder Vitalik Buterin, Aave founder Stani Kulechov, among several other investors.

 

Prediction Market Firms Grapple With Regulatory Uncertainty

Despite how remarkable the global prediction market sector has grown in recent times, prediction market companies still face several regulatory challenges, ranging from state level lawsuits to nationwide bans.

 

Several U.S. states, including New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Arizona, have taken strict regulatory action against prediction market companies, with many state regulators alleging that these companies offer illegal sports event contracts. At least 12 states in the U.S. have filed civil lawsuits against prediction market companies.

 

Outside the U.S., prediction market companies have also faced strict regulatory scrutiny. Just this year alone, about four countries in Europe, Portugal, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, and Hungary, have imposed nationwide bans on Polymarket’s activities.

 

However, despite this harsh regulatory landscape, the global prediction market continues to grow. In the most recent quarter, global trading volume across prediction market companies exceeded $ 26 billion, a 90 percent increase from the previous quarter. This volume, according to the global equity research firm Bernstein, is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

 

 

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has introduced into its wallet application, prediction market, a new feature that allows users to participate in probability-based markets directly from the Binance wallet app. 

 

This feature was made possible through the integration of Predict.fun, an independent decentralized prediction market platform built on the BNB Chain, with Binance explicitly stating the integration of more prediction market platforms into its app in the future. 

 

With the integration of Predict.fun into its wallet app as well as other future prediction market integration, Binance aims to tap into the over $20 billion prediction markets volume, going toe-to-toe with giant prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket which both account for 85–90% of the total global prediction market volume.

 

To encourage the mass adoption and use of this new prediction market feature, Binance is offering a gasless trading experience for all users. Thus, all trading fees incurred will be sponsored and catered for Binance itself, thereby making it very easy for its over 300 million users tap into the growing crypto prediction markets. 

 

Image credit: Binance

 

The Binance prediction market feature will also support market and limit orders, allowing traders execute trades immediately at the current best market price or leave immediately, without delay, as well as allowing traders execute trades at their specified price or even better. 

 

The Current State of Prediction Markets

Crypto prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent times, evolving from a niche segment of the crypto industry into a major sector in global finance. The global monthly trading volume across prediction market platforms has consistently exceeded 20 billion dollars, with last month recording approximately 25.7 billion dollars in trading volume.

 

Despite the high monthly trading volume and the growing number of unique crypto wallets actively trading across different platforms, prediction market companies have faced several regulatory challenges. This is especially true for the two largest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, whose trading volumes together account for about 92 to 93 percent of global prediction market activity.

 

Although the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator in the United States, has recently moved to defend prediction market companies from strict regulatory actions imposed by several states, the activities of these companies remain restricted in at least 11 states.

 

The services of Polymarket remain blocked in about 33 countries, while Kalshi is restricted in about 50 jurisdictions, although it is still available in roughly 140 countries.

 

 

Polymarket just announced what it is calling the biggest infrastructure change in its history. The on-chain prediction market platform is rolling out a rebuilt trading engine, a new smart contract architecture, and its own stablecoin, Polymarket USD, over the next two to three weeks. Whether you follow prediction markets closely or just heard about Polymarket during the last election cycle, this is a huge shift on how the protocol operates.

 

A New Stablecoin Built for the Platform

The centerpiece of the upgrade is Polymarket USD, a new collateral token that will replace the platform's current use of USDC.e. If you're not familiar, USDC.e is a bridged version of Circle's USDC stablecoin. It works fine, mostly, but it relies on cross-chain bridge infrastructure to exist on Polygon, which adds friction and a layer of risk that a platform handling this much trading volume probably shouldn't be comfortable with.

 

Polymarket USD will be backed 1:1 with Circle's native USDC, giving the company direct control over its settlement infrastructure for the first time. That's a bigger deal than it sounds. Control over your own collateral token means tighter liquidity management, more predictable settlement, and a foundation for whatever the company wants to build next.

 

For most regular users, the transition is supposed to be seamless. The platform's frontend will handle the conversion automatically with a one-time approval. Advanced users and developers running bots or API integrations are a different story. Those folks will need to update their SDKs and manually call a wrap function on the new Collateral Onramp contract to convert funds into Polymarket USD. The team says it will give at least a week's advance notice before any order book cancellations happen.

 

The Exchange Itself Is Getting a Full Rebuild

Beyond the stablecoin, Polymarket is launching CTF Exchange V2, a redesigned matching engine that processes orders faster and at lower gas costs. The updated Central Limit Order Book blends off-chain order placement with on-chain settlement.. The new order structure trims should reduce complexity for developers and improve execution across the board.

 

One notable addition is EIP-1271 support, which lets smart contract wallets, such as multi-signature wallets, interact with the platform directly without needing intermediaries.

 

The POLY Token Question

The announcement has predictably reignited speculation about POLY, Polymarket's long-rumored native governance token. The platform's chief marketing officer confirmed back in October 2025 that a POLY airdrop is in the works, contingent on completing a strong U.S. relaunch. But Monday's announcement makes no mention of POLY at all, and ironically... the odds on Polymarket itself currently put the chance of a POLY launch before May at just 11%

 

The speculation isn't really unfounded. Polymarket has historically relied on UMA's optimistic oracle system to resolve market outcomes, a setup where token holders vote to settle disputes. That system has faced criticism, particularly during geopolitically sensitive markets, where large token holders can exert outsized influence. A native governance token could eventually allow Polymarket to bring dispute resolution in-house, separating trading activity from outcome validation. Whether that's still  the plan remains unclear.

 

What's Next For Polymarket

The company, founded in 2020, is reportedly seeking a new funding round at a valuation near $20 billion. Last month, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, made a $600 million direct cash investment in the platform. That type of institutional backing puts a lot of pressure on the infrastructure to perform like a proper exchange.

 

Polymarket also registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in July 2025 after shutting down U.S. operations in 2022. An invite-only U.S. version of the platform has since launched under a regulatory no-action letter. The migration to a CFTC-registered model, combined with building settlement infrastructure around a regulated stablecoin issuer like Circle, is consistent with a company that wants to operate in the U.S. long-term, not just avoid regulators.

 

The rollout is expected to happen over the next two to three weeks. But there are some real risks here: any smart contract migration carries execution risk, and there could be liquidity fragmentation as traders straddle two collateral systems during the transition window. Whether Polymarket USD will face third-party reserve audits comparable to what Circle applies to native USDC is also an open question.

 

Still, if the upgrade goes smoothly, Polymarket will emerge with a cleaner technical foundation, lower transaction costs, and better tools for institutional participants. All of that should translate into significantly higher trading volume and a broader institutional footprint. But these next few weeks should tell us a lot.

 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) have filed parallel federal lawsuits against the states of Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona, as well as their gaming regulators, over the federal government’s right to regulate prediction markets.

 

The filings, which were made on Thursday, aim to prevent these states from restricting prediction market companies and enforcing state-level rules on them. The CFTC claims that it possesses exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets and says it will defend participants from what it describes as overzealous state regulators.

 

With this move, the CFTC seeks to halt strict regulatory actions taken by these states’ authorities, including several cease-and-desist letters issued to prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

 

What These States Did

Earlier this year, the Arizona Attorney General filed criminal charges against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC, accusing them of operating an illegal gambling business without a state license and violating state election wagering laws.

 

In December 2025, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease-and-desist orders to multiple prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood, accusing them of offering illegal sports event contracts and operating unlicensed online gambling operations within the state.

 

In April 2025, the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, asserting that the sports event contracts offered by these platforms constituted illegal wagering under Illinois gambling law.

 

In the court filing against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and the Illinois Gaming Board, the U.S. commodities regulator argues that event contracts traded on approved exchanges qualify as “swaps” under federal law, not gambling. The regulator also contends that Congress granted it exclusive jurisdiction and that Illinois’s insistence on licensing requirements amounts to an attempt to block federally regulated exchanges from operating.

 

Image credit: courtlistener

 

CFTC Acting Chair Michael Selig reiterated in a post on X that the CFTC has exclusive authority to regulate prediction market activity in the United States, and confirmed that the lawsuit was jointly filed by his agency and the U.S. Department of Justice.

 

 

Crackdown on Prediction Market Intensifies

Prediction market companies have faced intense crackdowns and regulatory restrictions in the U.S. in recent times. There are currently over 20 nationwide lawsuits filed against prediction market companies by regulators from several states, including New York, Washington, Nevada, and Massachusetts.

 

Outside the U.S., there have also been several strict regulatory actions by authorities in multiple countries, with many regulators accusing prediction market companies, especially Polymarket and Kalshi, of operating unregistered gambling activities and offering illegal sports event contracts in their jurisdictions.

 

 

Prediction markets used to be weird section of the internet where die-hard political junkies placed small bets on election outcomes. That version appears to be gone. According to new data from blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, prediction markets have now cracked $20 billion in monthly trading volume, and the category driving most of that activity is not sports or elections but geopolitics.

 

That says something real about how the world has changed. Traders are no longer just wagering on who wins a Senate seat. They are pricing the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, assessing the likelihood of a Chinese military action in Taiwan, and putting money on whether Iran's Supreme Leader survives the year. These are not just fringe markets. They are, increasingly, some of the most liquid on the entire platform landscape.

 

The shift reflects a broader transformation in how both retail and institutional participants are using prediction markets. According to TRM Labs, geopolitics now accounts for the majority of activity by volume, a reversal from even 18 months ago when political elections and sports dominated the leaderboard. The firm's report points to a world in which macro uncertainty, military escalation, and trade conflict have become reliable generators of trading interest.

 

The numbers behind this story are hard to argue with. The global prediction market industry processed roughly $63.5 billion in total notional trading volume across 2025, up from about $15.8 billion the year prior. Yes, that's correct...four times the amount. In a single year. In 2022, the entire sector did around $500 million. The growth is extraordinary.

 

Two platforms sit at the center of all this. Polymarket and Kalshi together accounted for approximately 97.5 percent of total industry volume in 2025, according to aggregated data tracked by multiple research outlets. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange backed by a $1 billion Series E led by Paradigm, processed over $23 billion in notional volume last year. Polymarket, the blockchain-based platform that operates globally and recently cleared its U.S. legal hurdles following the change in administration, brought in comparable figures, though some of its reported numbers are complicated by a structural double-counting issue flagged by Paradigm in December.

 

 

By February 2026, the combined monthly run rate for the two platforms had climbed to roughly $16.8 billion, with Kalshi accounting for about $9.8 billion of that and Polymarket the remaining $7 billion. At that pace, the sector is on track to top $200 billion in annual volume, with some forecasts reaching $325 billion if growth continues. A report cited by CNBC projects prediction markets could approach $1.1 trillion in annual volume by the end of the decade.

 

What makes the TRM Labs data particularly interesting is the composition of what is being traded. The firm has been tracking prediction market activity not just for volume but for what that volume reveals about where geopolitical risk is being priced. As the Ukraine conflict has dragged on and tariff uncertainty under the current U.S. administration has remained elevated, contracts tied to those outcomes have attracted serious capital. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire contracts on Polymarket have shifted repeatedly in response to diplomatic signals, functioning in a way that closely mirrors how traditional derivatives respond to macro news. Some institutional desks now watch these contracts alongside oil futures and sovereign bond spreads.

 

The Council on Foreign Relations noted earlier this year that prediction markets had demonstrated real forecasting credibility in a high-profile case. When the Trump administration was weighing strikes on Iran's nuclear program in mid-2025, many analysts dismissed the prospect as unlikely. Prediction markets assigned a 58 percent probability to strikes by the end of that week. Seven B-2 stealth bombers were already airborne.

 

That kind of accuracy does not happen every time, and anyone betting on these platforms should know that. Liquidity constraints still limit reliability on smaller or more obscure contracts, and the platforms have faced criticism over resolution disputes and rules design that has occasionally left winning bettors on the losing side. But on major geopolitical events where information is widely available and traders are motivated to get it right, the markets have shown a notable ability to aggregate collective judgment quickly.

 

The regulatory backdrop in the United States has shifted considerably in the past year. The Biden-era hostility to prediction markets has given way to a CFTC posture that is, by most accounts, far more permissive. Polymarket, which had been operating outside the U.S. and faced a federal investigation that included a raid on its founder's apartment, was cleared to operate domestically in late 2025. Kalshi, which had won its own legal battle over political markets in late 2024, has since integrated with Robinhood and Webull, putting its contracts in front of tens of millions of retail brokerage users.

 

The competition is intensifying. DraftKings and FanDuel have entered prediction markets, though analysts have suggested the two sports betting giants may have arrived too late to challenge Polymarket and Kalshi's entrenched liquidity. CertiK, the blockchain security firm, published a report in early 2026 flagging structural questions about sustainability once platform incentives fade, and noted that wash trading had inflated some Polymarket volumes in prior periods. Those are legitimate concerns for anyone trying to assess whether the sector's growth is as clean as the headline numbers suggest.

 

Still, the direction of travel is clear. Prediction markets have moved past the stage where they can be dismissed as a gambling novelty. The data from TRM Labs, taken alongside the broader market statistics, describes a financial layer that is increasingly responsive to the same forces that move bond markets and currency pairs. Geopolitics has always moved markets. What is new is that there is now a market specifically for geopolitics itself.

 

An Argentine court has ordered a nationwide block on the prediction market platform Polymarket over unauthorized gambling activities.

 

The ruling, issued by the Criminal, Misdemeanor and Offenses Court No. 31 in Buenos Aires, directs the country’s national communications and media regulator, the Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (ENACOM), to block access to Polymarket and its variants.

 

 

In the ruling, Judge Susana Beatriz Parada, the presiding judge of the court, instructed ENACOM to carry out all possible blocking measures, directly, indirectly, or through internet service providers (ISPs), and to promptly inform the court of any obstacles that could prevent full compliance with the ruling.

 

In addition to the nationwide ban, the court ordered the removal of the Polymarket application from Android and iOS stores, effectively preventing existing users from accessing it.

 

While the ruling appears severe, it follows an investigation into a complaint filed by the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA), the government agency responsible for regulating legal gambling activities in Argentina’s capital.

 

After receiving the complaint, the court, presided over by Judge Susana Parada, instructed Juan Rozas, head of the City’s Specialized Gambling Prosecutor’s Office (FEJA), to conduct an investigation that ultimately led to the decision.

 

According to Argentine authorities, Polymarket offers features that “significantly increase risks for users.” These include the ability to conduct transactions using cryptocurrencies and credit cards, as well as a lack of identity and age verification, allowing anyone to create an account within minutes.

 

Authorities say these features raise serious concerns about minors, who can easily access the platform and begin gambling without oversight.

 

 

Polymarket and Regional Bans

With this ban, Argentina joins more than 33 countries and regions that have restricted or prohibited the activities of Polymarket, many citing the company’s unlicensed gambling operations.

 

Colombia was the first South American country to block Polymarket. In late 2025, Coljuegos, the country’s gambling regulator, declared Polymarket’s activities illegal, stating that the company was offering unauthorized online betting.

 

 

Polymarket has gone on the offensive.

 

The crypto-powered prediction market has filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts, arguing that state regulators are overstepping their authority as they move to block sports-related prediction markets. The case puts Polymarket on a collision course with state gambling laws and could determine how far U.S. states can go in policing a fast-growing corner of crypto-finance.

 

At stake is a much bigger question than one company’s business model. The lawsuit tests whether prediction markets should be treated as federally regulated financial instruments or as another form of sports betting that states can license, restrict, or ban outright.

 

 

A Growing Clash Between States and Prediction Markets

Prediction markets allow users to trade on the probability of future events. Elections, economic data releases, interest rate decisions, and increasingly, sports outcomes. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out based on what actually happens, with prices shifting in real time as sentiment changes.

 

Supporters argue these markets are closer to financial derivatives than gambling. Critics, especially state regulators, say sports-based contracts look and feel like wagers, regardless of how they are structured.

 

That tension has been simmering for years, but it boiled over recently when Massachusetts moved to shut down Kalshi’s sports-related markets. Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yet a Massachusetts court sided with the state, granting regulators the power to block those contracts locally.

 

For Polymarket, that ruling was a warning shot.

 

 

Why Massachusetts Matters

Massachusetts has become ground zero for the state-level pushback. The state’s attorney general has argued that sports prediction contracts violate local gambling laws and should not be allowed without a state-issued license. Courts have so far been receptive to that argument, at least on an interim basis.

 

The implications extend far beyond one state. Regulators in Nevada and other jurisdictions have cited the Massachusetts case as justification for their own enforcement actions. If one state can successfully reclassify prediction markets as gambling, others are likely to follow.

 

Polymarket’s lawsuit is designed to stop that domino effect.

 

 

Polymarket’s Core Argument

Polymarket’s legal case is straightforward and ambitious.

 

The company argues that event-based contracts fall squarely under federal commodities law and that the CFTC has exclusive authority to regulate them. If that view holds, states would be barred from using gambling statutes to restrict or ban prediction markets, even when those markets involve sports.

 

In other words, Polymarket is asking the court to draw a hard line between federally regulated markets and state gambling oversight.

 

The lawsuit also reflects a strategic shift. Rather than waiting for a cease-and-desist or injunction, Polymarket is preemptively seeking judicial clarity before Massachusetts or other states can formally block its offerings.

 

 

Sports Markets Are the Flashpoint

Sports contracts sit at the center of the controversy for a reason. Unlike political or economic forecasts, sports betting is already heavily regulated at the state level, with billions in tax revenue flowing through licensed sportsbooks.

 

State officials argue that prediction markets offering contracts on game outcomes undermine that system and create an unlicensed alternative to traditional betting.

 

Prediction market operators counter that their products are fundamentally different. Prices are set by traders, not oddsmakers. Positions can be bought and sold before outcomes are known. Risk is distributed across a market, not absorbed by a house.

 

Courts have not yet settled which interpretation carries more weight.

 

 

The Broader Stakes for Crypto and Finance

The outcome of Polymarket’s lawsuit could shape the future of prediction markets in the U.S. If states prevail, platforms may be forced to geo-block large portions of the country or abandon sports contracts entirely. That would likely slow growth and limit mainstream adoption.

 

If Polymarket wins, it could establish a powerful precedent. Federal preemption would give prediction markets a clearer regulatory runway and could encourage more institutional participation in event-based trading.

 

There is also a competitive angle. Traditional sportsbooks operate under state licenses and strict compliance regimes. Prediction markets that fall outside those systems could disrupt the sports betting industry, which has expanded rapidly since the repeal of PASPA.

 

 

The Bottom Line

The case is still in its early stages, but the direction is clear. Prediction markets are no longer operating in a gray area that regulators are willing to ignore.

 

As states push back and platforms respond with federal lawsuits, the U.S. is heading toward a defining legal moment for event-based markets. Whether they end up regulated like derivatives or treated like gambling will determine not just where these platforms can operate, but what kind of products they can offer at all.

 

For now, Polymarket has drawn its line. The courts will decide how far states can go in crossing it.

Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to Halt Sports Prediction Contracts

 

Tennessee regulators have ordered Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to immediately stop offering sports-related prediction contracts to residents of the state, escalating a growing conflict between state gambling authorities and federally regulated prediction markets.

The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist orders on January 9, demanding that the three platforms halt all sports event contracts, void any open positions tied to Tennessee users, and refund customer funds by the end of the month.

State officials argue the products function as unlicensed sports betting under Tennessee law, regardless of how the companies describe them.

The move places Tennessee alongside a growing list of states pushing back against prediction markets that allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of sporting events, elections, or real-world events. While the platforms frame these products as financial instruments, state regulators increasingly see them as gambling by another name.

 

What Tennessee Is Demanding

According to the orders, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com must immediately cease offering sports contracts to Tennessee residents. Any existing sports-related contracts must be canceled, and all funds deposited by users in the state must be returned by January 31.

Failure to comply could expose the companies to civil penalties, injunctions, and possible criminal enforcement under Tennessee’s sports gaming laws.

The council’s position is straightforward. If money is being risked on the outcome of a sporting event, the state considers it sports wagering, which requires a license, tax payments, and adherence to consumer protection rules.

 

The Regulatory Fault Line

At the heart of the dispute is a long-running jurisdictional battle between state gambling regulators and the federal framework governing derivatives and commodities trading.

Kalshi and Polymarket operate under federal oversight tied to commodities regulation, and Crypto.com has positioned its event contracts as a similar financial product. The companies argue that their platforms fall outside traditional sports betting laws and should be regulated at the federal level.

Tennessee, like several other states, rejects that argument. State officials maintain that federal oversight does not override state authority when it comes to gambling conducted within state borders.

This disagreement has become one of the most contentious regulatory issues facing crypto-adjacent markets in the U.S.

 

A Pattern Across the States

Tennessee’s action is not an isolated case. Over the past year, multiple states have issued warnings or cease-and-desist orders targeting prediction markets tied to sports outcomes. Recently, Coinbase filed suit against Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois. Those states argue that Coinbase's prediction markets amount to illegal gambling and are attempting to ban them there.

Gaming regulators in states such as Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, and Illinois have raised similar concerns, arguing that prediction markets undermine state-regulated sports betting ecosystems while avoiding licensing requirements and taxes.

In some cases, platforms have pulled back voluntarily. In others, companies have opted to fight.

Kalshi has already challenged similar enforcement actions in court, arguing that state gambling laws are being improperly applied to federally regulated markets. The outcome of those cases could shape the future of prediction markets nationwide.

 

Why States Are Pushing Back Now

State regulators say the issue is not just about definitions, but about consumer protection and regulatory consistency.

Licensed sportsbooks are required to meet strict standards related to age verification, responsible gambling tools, fund segregation, and auditing. States argue that prediction markets offering sports contracts operate outside those guardrails while competing for the same customers.

There is also growing concern that prediction markets blur the line between financial trading and gambling in ways existing laws were never designed to address.

For regulators, allowing these products to operate unchecked could weaken the authority of state gaming frameworks that were carefully built following the legalization of sports betting.

 

What Happens Next

The Tennessee order adds new pressure on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com at a time when prediction markets are expanding rapidly and attracting increased attention from both traders and policymakers.

The companies could comply and exit the state, challenge the order in court, or push for clearer federal guidance that limits states’ ability to intervene.

Until that happens, the industry remains stuck in a regulatory gray zone, where legality depends less on federal approval and more on how individual states choose to interpret decades-old gambling laws.

 

For crypto-linked prediction markets, Tennessee’s action is another reminder that regulatory risk in the U.S. remains fragmented, unpredictable, and increasingly aggressive.

Polymarket To Bring Prediction Market Data To The Wall Street Journal In Dow Jones Deal

 

Dow Jones is bringing prediction market data into the center of mainstream financial news, and the move says a lot about how institutions now think about expectations.

Through a new partnership, Polymarket’s real-time probabilities will begin appearing across Dow Jones properties, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. These are not experimental sidebars or crypto-only sections. They are some of the most influential platforms in global finance. Placing prediction market data alongside prices, earnings estimates, and economic indicators reflects a belief that expectations themselves are now core financial information.

This is not about betting for entertainment. It is about who defines what the market thinks, and how fast that belief can be measured.

 

From curiosity to core signal

Prediction markets spent years on the margins, popular with political traders and information obsessives who wanted a cleaner read on future outcomes. What changed was not the concept, but the credibility and distribution.

Dow Jones is not treating Polymarket as a novelty widget. The company plans to integrate its data directly into consumer-facing products, including prominent digital placements and market-focused pages. One early example is an earnings calendar built around market-implied expectations rather than analyst consensus or corporate guidance alone.

Markets move on belief before they move on fact. Earnings surprises, regulatory decisions, court rulings, and central bank signals all trade on anticipation. Prediction markets make that anticipation visible in a single number that updates continuously.

For readers, the value is immediate. Instead of asking what already happened, the data answers a more urgent question: what does the market think is about to happen right now?

 

Why institutions are choosing markets over polls

For decades, polling was the default way media organizations measured expectations. Ask a group what they think will happen, average the answers, and publish the result. That model worked when belief changed slowly and news cycles moved in days rather than minutes.

That is no longer the case.

Prediction markets like Polymarket offer a live, self-correcting signal that polling cannot match. Participants are not just stating opinions, they are committing capital. When new information appears, prices adjust immediately. There is no waiting for another survey, no methodological lag, and no static snapshot that begins aging the moment it is published.

For Dow Jones, this matters because speed and credibility are now inseparable. Polls depend on sampling assumptions, response honesty, and weighting choices that are easy to question after the fact. Prediction markets push that weighting into the market itself. Influence emerges through price, not editorial judgment.

Markets also surface uncertainty more honestly. A poll can show a stable percentage while masking deep disagreement. A prediction market exposes that tension directly through volatility and rapid probability swings. For financial coverage built around anticipation rather than confirmation, that visibility is valuable.

In that sense, Polymarket data is not replacing journalism. It is replacing an aging expectations tool.

 

Built for modern financial media

Financial news has steadily moved toward modular data. Futures boxes, rate probability tables, volatility gauges, and dashboards now sit alongside traditional reporting. Prediction market probabilities fit naturally into that structure.

They are compact, intuitive, and fast. A 64 percent probability communicates instantly, without requiring paragraphs of caveats. For audiences already trained to think in odds and ranges, the format feels native.

Dow Jones executives have described prediction market data as a way to show collective belief in real time. The wording is careful for a reason. These numbers are not forecasts handed down as truth. They are signals of sentiment, continuously updated, sometimes wrong, often revealing.

 

Part of a broader shift, not a one-off

The Dow Jones partnership is not happening in isolation. CNBC recently announced a multi-year deal with Kalshi to integrate prediction data across its television and digital platforms. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has made a strategic investment in Polymarket and positioned its data as a product for institutional clients.

The pattern is clear. Prediction markets are trying to move from destination platforms to infrastructure. Less about attracting users to trade, more about embedding probabilities wherever decisions are made.

For publishers, that creates a new class of data product. For prediction platforms, distribution is the growth strategy.

 

How prediction data reshapes coverage

The most important change will be editorial, not technical.

Sudden shifts in probability can become story drivers. Why did expectations flip overnight? What information entered the market? Who acted first? The probability move becomes the signal, and the reporting explains it.

Earnings coverage is an obvious fit, but so are regulatory deadlines, major lawsuits, macro announcements, and elections. Anywhere the market is waiting, prediction data creates a visible tension line that journalism can follow.

Used well, these markets do not replace analysis. They sharpen it.

 

The risks are still there

Prediction markets are not neutral truth engines.

Thin liquidity can create false confidence. Small groups of traders can push prices, especially in niche markets. Numbers that look authoritative can mislead if they are presented without context.

There are also real issues around contract definitions and resolution. Ambiguity can turn into public disputes, and those disputes matter more when probabilities are embedded in major media brands.

Regulatory uncertainty remains part of the backdrop as well. As prediction data reaches broader retail audiences through mainstream publishers, scrutiny is likely to increase.

For Dow Jones, the challenge is framing. These probabilities must be treated like market data, not predictions carved in stone.

 

Why this matters long term

This partnership points to a larger shift in how financial information is consumed.

Markets increasingly trade on narratives, second-order beliefs, and collective anticipation. Prediction markets make those forces legible. Media companies want tools that help readers understand not just what happened, but what everyone thinks is about to happen.

For Polymarket, the strategy is clear. Becoming embedded in the workflows of investors, analysts, and journalists is more powerful than being another destination site.

For financial media, this is a bet that probabilities will become as standard as price charts.

 

And for readers, it suggests the future of market news will focus less on confident forecasts and more on watching belief itself move, in real time.

 

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Kalshi and Polymarket Post Record Volume as Prediction Markets Hit Nearly $10 Billion in November

Prediction markets are entering their strongest era to date. In November 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket collectively recorded nearly 10 billion dollars in trading volume, marking the most active month in the history of the sector. This surge shows that prediction markets are no longer niche experiments. They are becoming influential financial instruments used by millions of traders, analysts and institutions.

The industry’s rapid expansion reflects growing interest in real world event trading, increased liquidity and a shift in how investors view information markets.

 

How Kalshi and Polymarket Reached New Heights

Institutional Investment and Regulatory Clarity

Kalshi has positioned itself as the regulated prediction exchange in the United States. With a green light from federal derivatives regulators, the platform attracted significant institutional investment. Its most recent funding round valued the company at approximately 11 billion dollars.

Polymarket, on the other hand, grew from the crypto native community. Its decentralized architecture and global accessibility attracted users drawn to event based markets that operate without borders. As Polymarket expanded, its volume accelerated sharply, particularly in 2024 and 2025.

Together, the two platforms now represent the core of the prediction market ecosystem. One operates with traditional oversight, and the other leverages blockchain transparency. Both models have succeeded by meeting rising demand for trading around news, sports, politics and global uncertainty.

Surge in Demand From Sports, Politics and Macroeconomics

The November boom appears to have been driven by significant events across sports and entertainment, along with heightened activity in political and macroeconomic markets. Major sporting events, international political developments and volatility in global markets created a perfect environment for event driven speculation.

Polymarket in particular saw sharp month over month growth, with more than 3 billion dollars traded in October followed by an even stronger November contribution. Kalshi also reported record numbers across political, sports and economic categories.

 

What This Means for the Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Serious Asset Class

A combined 10 billion dollars in monthly trading volume places prediction markets in the realm of legitimate financial instruments. This surge demonstrates that traders are increasingly comfortable speculating on real world outcomes using structured markets rather than informal sentiment or traditional betting platforms.

Liquidity and Market Depth Are Strengthening

As more capital enters the ecosystem, liquidity improves and spreads tighten. Higher liquidity reduces volatility and improves price accuracy, allowing events to reflect true market expectations. This makes prediction markets more reliable indicators of sentiment around elections, economic reports, policy shifts and high profile entertainment events.

Traditional Finance Meets Crypto Native Innovation

Kalshi and Polymarket represent two very different models. Kalshi is regulated, compliant and geared toward traditional market participants. Polymarket is decentralized, global and capable of listing a wide variety of markets. The success of both platforms shows that prediction markets can appeal to different audiences and regulatory frameworks while still growing in parallel.

New Hedging and Speculation Tools

Prediction markets enable traders to hedge against real world uncertainty. Instead of relying solely on equities, commodities or forex markets, users can now hedge or speculate directly on election outcomes, interest rate decisions, policy changes or cultural events. This is a fundamental expansion of what financial markets can price.

 

Challenges That Still Remain

Prediction markets face headwinds even as they achieve record volume.

• Regulatory uncertainty. Some jurisdictions classify certain event markets as gambling, while others treat them as derivatives.

• Concentration of liquidity. Large events dominate attention, leaving smaller markets with limited participation.

• Volatility around major events. Binary markets can swing sharply as news breaks, creating risk for traders and market makers.

• Infrastructure demands. Platforms must scale securely to handle institutional interest and larger volumes.

How Kalshi, Polymarket and future competitors handle these challenges will help determine whether prediction markets can sustain long term growth.

 

Final Thoughts

The combined 10 billion dollar surge in November volume from Kalshi and Polymarket signals a major shift in the financial landscape. Prediction markets are becoming mainstream. They are attracting serious capital, gaining institutional legitimacy and proving that people want tools that let them trade on real world information.

Whether it is politics, macroeconomics, sports or cultural events, prediction markets offer a new expression of financial participation. If growth continues, they may soon become a standard part of global finance, sitting alongside equities, futures, options and digital assets.

 

This moment marks the transition from niche concept to powerful market infrastructure. The prediction market revolution is now fully underway.

 

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Polymarket Secures CFTC Approval, Marking a Landmark Return to the U.S. Regulated Market

Polymarket, one of the most well-known crypto prediction platforms, has officially secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a fully regulated exchange in the United States. This milestone represents the end of a long regulatory saga and marks the beginning of a new era for event-based markets in the American financial system.

Once viewed primarily as an offshore curiosity on the fringes of crypto, Polymarket is now entering the most regulated derivatives market in the world with a structure that resembles a traditional exchange. The approval signals a wider shift in how prediction markets are treated, not as gray-area gambling products but as legitimate financial instruments with real informational and economic value.

 

A Long Road Back: From Enforcement Actions to Full Approval

Polymarket’s path to reentry took several years and involved significant regulatory challenges.

In 2022 the CFTC fined the company and required it to shut down operations for U.S. customers. At the time the agency viewed Polymarket as an unregistered derivatives venue, and American users were cut off as the platform relocated offshore. For nearly three years Polymarket operated internationally, mostly in regulatory limbo, even as it grew rapidly.

Everything shifted in 2025. Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing entity, which gave the company a compliant foundation to reenter the United States. This acquisition changed the regulatory landscape. With QCEX under its umbrella, Polymarket could finally connect to the U.S. derivatives system in a way that aligned with federal rules.

The CFTC then issued a targeted no-action letter providing relief for certain recordkeeping and reporting requirements related specifically to event contracts. This signaled that regulators were open to a structured, compliant form of prediction markets.

The latest approval goes further. It integrates Polymarket’s U.S. entity into the full Designated Contract Market framework, meaning it can now operate in tandem with brokers, clearing firms and professional market infrastructure.

Polymarket has not simply returned. It has transformed.

 

What the New CFTC Approval Allows

With this newly amended approval, Polymarket’s U.S. exchange gains access to traditional financial infrastructure, including:

Intermediated Access

Brokers, futures commission merchants and financial intermediaries can now connect to the exchange. Retail participants will eventually be able to access markets through their existing brokerage accounts.

Regulated Clearing and Custody

Contracts can settle through a compliant clearinghouse with full risk controls, reporting frameworks and established audit systems. This allows Polymarket to operate with the same safeguards that apply to regulated futures markets.

Clear Legal Status

The exchange now sits inside the CFTC’s regulatory perimeter. Instead of operating in a legal gray zone, Polymarket’s U.S. operations function as a recognized derivatives venue.

This level of integration was once unimaginable for prediction markets. Now it represents the new baseline.

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What Polymarket Plans to Bring to U.S. Users

Polymarket’s core innovation is event-based trading. Users buy or sell positions tied to real-world outcomes such as elections, policy decisions, sports results, economic data releases or cultural events.

The company plans a phased rollout for the U.S. market that will begin with a limited number of markets while onboarding infrastructure is tested. Over time the platform intends to expand into broader categories, including political outcomes, macroeconomic indicators and entertainment markets.

The company has raised substantial capital at valuations nearing one billion dollars, and investors expect the regulated U.S. platform to be a major growth driver.

 

Why This Moment Matters for Prediction Markets

Polymarket’s approval arrives at a time when interest in event contracts is growing across the financial, regulatory and technology sectors. Several major industry trends make this moment especially significant:

A Shift Away From Viewing Markets as Gambling

For decades regulators struggled to categorize prediction markets. The new CFTC framework acknowledges that event-based products can carry informational and hedging value rather than being dismissed as speculative wagers.

Expansion of Prediction Markets Across Industries

Traditional finance platforms, sports betting operators and fintech companies are exploring event-based products. This includes sports markets, political prediction markets and financial data markets.

Integration Into Mainstream Platforms

With intermediated access permitted, it is possible that Polymarket’s markets will eventually appear on traditional brokerage platforms, in the same accounts where users already trade stocks and futures.

Rising Legal Clarity

The regulatory structure around event contracts is still evolving, but Polymarket’s approval provides a template for others to follow. Until recently, no one could point to a clear path. Now there is one.

This is not just a step forward for Polymarket. It is a turning point for the entire prediction market industry.

 

Remaining Risks and Open Questions

While the approval is a major milestone, several challenges remain:

• State-level restrictions may still apply. Some states treat event markets as gambling, regardless of federal classification.

• Political concerns are rising as political event markets attract both attention and controversy.

• Scope of no-action relief remains limited, meaning regulators could still intervene if markets move outside approved parameters.

• Global regulatory landscape remains inconsistent, with foreign jurisdictions applying very different gambling and derivatives rules.

Polymarket’s success in the United States does not automatically eliminate international hurdles.

 

Final Thoughts

Polymarket’s return to the United States in fully regulated form marks one of the most important shifts in the history of prediction markets. A platform once forced offshore has now reentered the U.S. through a regulated, institutional-grade exchange framework. The significance of this moment goes far beyond one company. It signals that prediction markets may finally be entering the financial mainstream.

 

The next phase will determine how widely these markets spread, how they integrate with traditional finance and how regulators balance innovation with oversight. But for now, a once-fringe industry has gained legitimacy, and Polymarket stands at the center of the transformation.

 

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