Every October, crypto traders joke about “Uptober” — a magical month when prices tend to rise. But this year, Uptober might be more than a meme. The U.S. SEC has a packed calendar of decisions coming up on multiple spot crypto ETFs.

If these get approved, Uptober could finally have real fuel behind it. If not, it could turn into “Upvember.”

What’s on the Table

The SEC has to make calls this month on several spot ETFs — funds that directly hold crypto like Solana, XRP, and Cardano. These are big deals because they give regular investors (and big institutions) a way to buy crypto through a regulated stock market product, without needing wallets, exchanges, or private keys.

Here’s how the deadlines lined up before the government shutdown:

  • Solana (SOL): Decisions expected Oct. 7–16.

  • Dogecoin (DOGE) & Hedera (HBAR): Both lined up for Oct. 8.

  • Cardano (ADA): Around Oct. 26.

  • XRP: Late October into early November.

Normally, ETF approvals take months. But in September, the SEC changed the rules, making the process faster and easier — which is why so many are pointing to October as a potential “yes” month.

Why Solana Looks Like the Favorite

Most analysts think Solana has the best shot. It’s one of the biggest and most liquid blockchains, with institutional money already flowing into Solana-based funds. Bloomberg analysts and prediction markets like Polymarket are giving Solana ETF approval odds of over 90–99%.

In other words: the market is treating a Solana ETF as almost a done deal. If approved, that could open the door for XRP, Cardano, and even Dogecoin to follow.

Prediction Markets Are Buzzing

Here’s how odds are shaping up for October approvals, according to betting markets and analyst forecasts:

  • Solana: 90–99%

  • XRP: 70–85%

  • Cardano: 60–70%

  • Dogecoin: 50–55%

  • Hedera: 40–45%

The message is simple: Solana is nearly certain in the eyes of traders, while the rest are in “maybe” territory.

The Wild Card: U.S. Government Shutdown

Here’s the catch: the U.S. government is still facing a shutdown. If SEC staff are furloughed or slowed down, decisions could get delayed. That doesn’t mean the ETFs are dead — it just means approvals will slip into November.

What It Could Mean for Prices

If multiple ETFs get approved in October:

  • Solana could lead a rally, with analysts floating $300+ targets.

  • XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin, Hedera, and Litecoin could ride the wave as new capital pours in.

If approvals are delayed or staggered, the rally might still come — just later. Uptober might stretch into “Upvember.” But the odds are that it is coming.

Uptober Has Real Shot

This year’s Uptober feels different. It’s not just about seasonal optimism, it’s about real structural change. If the SEC follows through and approves even one or two altcoin spot ETFs, it could be the first time mainstream investors can easily access more than just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For retail investors, the play is simple: watch the SEC’s decisions. The moment a press release drops approving Solana (or more), expect headlines, liquidity, and yes...maybe the Uptober rally everyone’s been waiting for.

Because for once, Uptober might not just be a meme. It could be the start of a new ETF era for crypto.